The Creation Of Urban Service Jobs In China

In recent years,as China's economic development has entered the new normal and the supply-side structural reform has been promoted,which is related to the stability of the country and the stable employment of the people's livelihood.In the three major industries,the proportion of employees working in the service industry has been increasing year by year,reaching 44.9%in 2017.At present,the state attaches more and more importance to the development of the service industry when formulating the employment expansion plan.However,under the influence of the long planned economic system and the trend of heavy industry,the development of domestic service industry has been relatively backward,the industrial structure is unbalanced,the urbanization lags behind the industrialization situation is severe,and the service industry cannot exist separately from the manufacturing industry.Therefore,in the discussion of expanding employment in the service industry to drive overall employment growth,the role of manufacturing employment in the service industry cannot be ignored.It is an important starting point and basic point of economic transformation to examine the multiplier effect of manufacturing employment on local labor market and service employment.No matter in developed countries or developing countries,local governments often on the one hand,through the implementation of various preferential policies,such as tax breaks,land policy,the employee welfare policy,etc.,to attract manufacturing enterprises,on the other hand for doesn't fit in the area of the development of outstanding manufacturing enterprises set up barriers to quit.A "two-pronged effort" to boost employment and wages in other local industries.Such intervention in the local economy is particularly widespread at home.However,the existing literature is divided on whether similar local economic development policies are effective and what the final effect is.Particularly,the problem becomes more complex when regional heterogeneity is considered,and more evidence needs to be provided by continuous in-depth studies.This paper mainly adopts the research method of combination of theoretical analysis and empirical test.First,it elaborates the theory of the effect of manufacturing industry on the employment multiplier in the service industry to make theoretical hypothesis and analysis.The specific process is to sort out the previous literature and put forward the theoretical hypothesis of empirical research on this basis.Then through the establishment of appropriate econometric model,the multiplier effect of manufacturing employment increase on service employment is analyzed.Empirical analysis consists of two parts:traditional model and extended model.The traditional model established the regression equation in the conventional way to estimate the overall multiplier effect of employment,and then introduced the control variable and tool variable to correct it.On the basis of the traditional model,the extended model breaks the shackle of the original linear research,proves the rationality and scientificity of the non-linear setting on the basis of relevant theories,and conducts verification research along this line of thought.Subsequently,282 cities were divided into 5 levels to compare the heterogeneity of the employment multiplier effect,so as to provide some Suggestions for job creation in urban service industry in China.Based on the above theoretical research and empirical test,the following results were obtained:(1)after linear regression of 282 cities,the employment multiplier was significant,quantified as each additional unit of employment in the manufacturing sector,and the corresponding increase of about 1.26 units of employment in the service sector.Subdivided industries found that increased manufacturing employment for higher-labor-intensive low-end services would create more jobs.(2)the quadratic coefficient symbols of the nonlinear regression of the whole and some samples are negative,and the image presents an inverted "U" type.It was found that the maximum employment multiplier of the manufacturing industry for the service industry was higher in the cities with lower levels than in the cities with higher levels,and the employment capacity was smaller at the peak.The innovation reflected in the research process is summarized in two points.First,a non-linear model is established to study the employment multiplier effect of China's urban manufacturing on the service industry.Secondly,the city was divided into five levels according to the level of comprehensive ability.Few scholars have previously divided cities,at most taking into account only one geographical location factor:east,central and west.Based on these two main creation features,there are some deficiencies,such as the lack of in-depth study on the subdivided service industry of grade cities due to the limitations of data quality,which I hope to make up for later.