Study On The Economic Effects Of China's Population Structure

In recent years,China's population and economic development have presented a new normal,which is different from the past.the population structure problems are prominent,and the economic development speed has slowed down noticeably.As one of the important factors of economic development,the optimization of population structure has become an important subject.Therefore,it is necessary to make further research on the population structure and its internal connection with economic development,so as to provide scientific theoretical basis for their coordinated development.This paper analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of China's population structure from 1990 to 2017 by collecting the population data of China and 31 numbers of provincial-level administrative regions(due to the lack of data,this study does not include Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan).On this basis,firstly we established the spatial panel data model to conduct quantitative research on the relationship between China's population structure and regional economy.Then,we selected four cross-sectional data of each province in 1990,2000,2010 and 2017 to calculate the concentration degree and inconsistency index of population and economic geography,which the purpose was to explore the spatial distribution and coordination degree of population and economic development in various provinces in different periods.After that we explored the spatial evolution path of China's overall population and economic center of gravity from 1990 to 2017 by using the gravity analysis method.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)China's population structure development is at a low level,but it is changing rapidly in all aspects.Since 1990,China's natural population growth rate has gradually dropped to a low level;the sex ratio of the total population is reasonable;the aging of the population and the phenomenon of fewer children is increasing,but China's labor resources are still relatively rich;population urbanization continues to advance;the employment structure of the population has been constantly improved;the structure of population and education is improving.(2)The regional demographic gap is significant.According to the census data,the sex ratio imbalance is prevalent in most provinces in China,and most regions have more males than females.Since 1990,the proportion of the juvenile population has been decreasing and the proportion of the elderly population has been increasing in all regions of China.In terms of urban-rural population structure,industrial structure,cultural structure and other aspects,the population structure of each province has been constantly improved,but there are significant differences among regions.(3)A number of indicators of demographic structure are significantly correlated with economic growth.The proportion of urban population,the proportion of the population aged 15-64,the number of years of education per capita,and the proportion of the population with higher educational background are all positively correlated with economic growth,while the natural growth rate,population sex ratio,urban registered unemployment rate are negatively correlated with economic growth.Moreover,multiple demographic indicators have spillover effects,that is,they have an impact on the surrounding areas.(4)China's population and economic spatial agglomeration have both similarities and inconsistencies.Since 1990,the concentration of population and economic geography in the eastern coastal areas is very high,while that in inland areas of northwest,northeast and southwest of China is generally low.However,they are not completely coupled,and the number of provinces in population lagging regions and economic lagging regions are both large.From a national perspective,since 1990,China's population and economic center of gravity are both located in Henan province,but the two do not completely overlap.Finally,based on the results of empirical analysis,this paper puts forward policy suggestions on promoting the reasonable development of population structure and the coordinated development between population structure and economy from the aspects of population policy,talent construction,education construction,household registration system,services for the elderly and industrial structure.