Research On Population Carrying Potential Based On The Population Geography In Yanbian Prefecture

Based on the statistical yearbook of Yanbian from 1987 to 2017,combined with the data of the fourth,fifth and sixth sub-county population census of China,the population distribution and pattern of Yanbian were analyzed by using population distribution index methods such as population distribution center,Lorentz curve and population bearing potential.And 14 natural and socioeconomic driving factors affecting the spatial distribution of population in Yanbian were analyzed by the partial least squares method(PLS).Finally,the population of Yanbian was predicted with the analysis of population capacity.The results showed that:1.The population of yanbian shows a trend of rapid growth,fluctuation rising and slow decline.On the scale of city,the overall trend of the spatial distribution of population density in yanbian has not changed,the central and eastern regions are always higher than the surrounding areas.On the scale of villages,the central,northwest and southeast of yanbian are densely populated,while the northeast and southwest are sparsely populated.The change of population density in yanbian is a process from relative dispersion to relative concentration and then to relative dispersion.The population density of the central region is still higher than that of other regions,while the population density of the marginal regions shows a growing trend.2.Through qualitative and quantitative analysis of the population center of yanbian,it is concluded that the population center of yanbian shifts to the north direction,but there are small fluctuations.In terms of driving factor analysis,partial least squares regression analysis showed that the total output value of industry and agriculture,the wages of employees,the stable income of rural population,and the medical and health conditions are the main driving factors of population migration.3.Using the three population geography dimensions of natural environment,social economy and ecological footprint to analyze the population capacity of counties and cities in Yanbian Prefecture,combined with the population carrying potential index of each county and city,it is proposed that the development of Yanbian Prefecture cannot rely solely on advantages.Considering the disadvantages,the premise of development is to consider 'all factors comprehensively.The above research provides some data support and reference suggestions for the future population development of Yanbian Prefecture and the formulation of relevant policies of cities.