Research On The Impact Of Population Structure Change On Economic Development In China

In the 40 years since the reform and opening-up,China's population structure has undergone fundamental changes,some of which will inevitably lead to changes in economic development.At present,China's development has entered a new stage.Reform has entered a critical period and a deep-water area.It is particularly important to explore the impact of changes in population structure on economic development.It will formulate population policies and moderately adjust economic development for the country.The direction of development provides a theoretical basis,so that our economic trains have been running steadily on the track of healthy development.Firstly,the concept of Copula theory,common types,correlation measures,parameter estimation methods and related test methods are described in detail.Secondly,combined with literature research,specific indicators are selected from the gender structure,age structure,industrial structure,cultural structure,urban-rural structure and economic development of the population structure: gender ratio,the proportion of the elderly population,the number of tertiary industry employment,the number of College graduates,urbanization rate,per capital GDP,and its current situation is analyzed.When we use the traditional regression,stepwise regression and Copula theory to screen the indicators,we find that the indicators selected by Copula theory have better fitting effect and higher explanatory power when we study the relationship between population structure change and economic development.When using Copula theory to screen indicators,we mainly use nuclear density estimation to determine the marginal distribution of variables and semi-parametric method to estimate the parameters of Copula function.The optimal Copula function among variables is selected by the minimum distance method of empirical Copula function,and the tail correlation coefficient is used to express the correlation degree among the explanatoryvariables.Finally,the sex ratio,the proportion of the elderly population and the urbanization rate are selected for follow-up study.Finally,conclusions and suggestions are drawn based on literature research,current situation description and model results.The conclusions show that gender ratio and the proportion of elderly population are negatively correlated with China's economic development,and urbanization rate is positively correlated with China's economic development.Secondly,we should improve the aging mechanism,postpone the retirement age,focus on the development of pension industry and make up for the shortcomings of the aging population.Thirdly,we should promote the integration of urban and rural areas and coordinate the coordinated development of urban and rural areas.