| Agriculture has always been the basis of the national economy.As a major agricultural province of China,Hubei province has rich labor resources but small per capita cultivated land.Since the reform and opening up,the economy has shifted from medium to high speed growth stage(1982-1999 years)to the stage of high growth(2000-2010 years),and the burden of population raising has also crossed over 47%in 2000.The period of lipstick changes to the high profit period of the population.In recent decades,the economic growth rate in Hubei has been undulating,and the economic growth rate has declined since 2010,and the burden of population support has also rebounded since 2010.As a whole,the rural elderly population in Hubei province accounts for a large proportion of the total population of the elderly,and this change will also have a great adverse impact on the development of agriculture.It is not difficult to find that the age structure of population is an important and sensitive factor in economic growth.The study of the influence of the change of population age structure on economic growth in Hubei is helpful to further understand the influence mechanism and the influence range of the age structure change of the provincial economy based on agriculture.The problem of solving the "three rural" problem can not be confined to the field of agriculture.The problem of agriculture should be combined with the non-agricultural industry.Only based on the whole national economy can the problem of "three rural" be analyzed and solved more comprehensively.The transfer of rural surplus labor is not only a solution to the hindrance to agricultural modernization,but also a solution to the problem.In the process of industrialization and urbanization,the important measures of insufficient labor force,the influence of urban and rural migration in Hubei province should not be thrown away from the cities to study the rural areas,nor should they be thrown away from the countryside to study the cities.Only when agriculture and non-agricultural industries are coordinated,can the whole national economy develop healthily and orderly.Therefore,this paper does not only base on the changes in the age structure of the rural population in Hubei province to study the relationship with the agricultural economic growth,but takes the population age structure of Hubei as the research object to discuss the relationship with the quantity of economic growth,based on the present situation of the aging of the whole province of Hubei and the trend of economic growth,and give the solution to the people.The measures and suggestions for the slowdown of economic growth caused by the aging of the population have promoted the transfer of rural surplus labor in the large agricultural province of Hubei,and promoted the coordinated development of rural urbanization,agricultural industrialization and economic growth.In this paper,the transfer of rural surplus labor force is one of the main measures to slow down the economic growth rate of Hubei province by the change of the current age structure.Only the various industrial departments can coordinate with each other,and the agricultural province of Hubei can get better development.This thesis consists of six parts.The first part introduces the purpose of this study,summarizes the research results related to the population age structure and economic growth at home and abroad,and then introduces the logic of the paper and the possible innovations.The second part focuses on sorting out the theoretical concepts related to population age structure and economic growth.The third part mainly expounds the influence mechanism of population age structure change to economic growth,which includes 6 aspects:labor supply,resident consumption,resident savings,human capital accumulation,scientific and technological innovation and social public expenditure.The fourth part summarizes the changing characteristics and the trend of economic growth of Hubei's population age structure through statistical methods.In the fifth part,labor supply,resident consumption and resident savings are included in the regression model respectively.The influence of the population age structure changes in Hubei Province on the 3 intermediate factors is discussed,and the effect on economic growth is indirect.Then,based on the population dependency ratio and GDP in Hubei,the VAR model and ECM model are established to explore the long-term equilibrium relationship between population age structure and economic growth,the Grainger causality and the short-term fluctuation.The sixth part summarizes the research results of the full text,and puts forward reasonable and feasible suggestions on the distribution characteristics of the elderly population in Hubei and the existing problems in the process of the influence of population age structure on economic growth.Through the analysis of the changes in the population dependency ratio in Hubei in the past 1990-2014 years,this paper found that the child dependency ratio declined rapidly,the elderly dependency ratio increased slowly,and the total dependency ratio mainly influenced by the children's dependency ratio.According to the results of regression calculation,the change of population age structure is endogenous to labor supply,which can improve the effectiveness of labor and benefit economic growth.The decrease of total dependency ratio is not conducive to the increase of consumption demand in Hubei Province,while the decline of children's dependency ratio and the increase of the elderly dependency ratio are all contributing to the increase of savings.The VAR model shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the total dependency ratio and the GDP,and the total population dependency ratio is the Grainger causality of GDP,but GDP is not the causality of the total population dependency ratio.From the ECM model,we can see that in the short run,the total population dependency ratio will have a negative impact on GDP,and the system will pull back to the equilibrium state with a 47%adjustment effort. |
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