Analysis And Prediction Of Population Structure In Xinjiang Since The Western Development

In the context of the “Western Development” and the “Silk Road Economic Belt”,the rapid economic development of Xinjiang has brought about demographic changes,which in turn will affect the economic growth.To achieve the strategic goals of the “Western Development” and the “2035 Vision”,we must pay attention to the issue of population development.In the face of the high sex ratio and the widening gap between urban and rural areas,this study will focus on how to adjust the population structure,deepen urbanization reform and development,and promote ethnic exchange and integration at a deeper level.This study discusses the current development and problems of the population structure of Xinjiang region in terms of three different population structures: sex,urban-rural and ethnicity.Based on the collected data and constructed indicators,descriptive analysis is used to outline the overall population development in Xinjiang since the “Western Development”;the influencing factors are studied by firstly using factor analysis for dimensionality reduction to eliminate the correlation between variables,followed by fitting the standardized data with a multiple linear regression model,and analyzing the influencing factors of the population through the interpretation of the model;using the gray GM(1,1)model to predict the sex ratio,urbanization rate and ethnic population ratio,respectively,and test the accuracy of the model to examine the trend of population structure changes in a future period.The results of the study are as follows:(1)the total population growth rate in Xinjiang tends to slow down,and the natural population growth rate touches the international red line of population growth;the population sex ratio is in the critical range,and the composition of the population sex ratio is unstable;the urbanization level gradually increases,and the urban population has a tendency to grow rapidly;the ethnic population growth has advantages,and the increasing living standard promotes the willingness to have children.(2)The three male factors social development factor,life development factor and investment development factor are extracted by factor analysis.The influence of the three male factors on the population structure of Xinjiang region is becoming more and more significant,and the positive promotion effect on the population structure is increasing year by year.The sex ratio regression model does not fit well,and the regression coefficient values do not match the actual situation.In the urbanization regression model,the social development factor has a greater impact on the urban-rural population structure,while the investment development factor has a relatively smaller impact on the urban-rural population structure,which fits well and is consistent with the actual development.In the regression model of ethnic population ratio,the regression model passes the test,and all regression coefficients are significant,and the model fits well.The signs of the regression coefficient values of each common factor are positive,indicating that it has a positive impact on the population structure of minority groups,which is in line with the actual situation.(3)The sex ratio increases year by year and is critical to the standard value;the urbanization level increases rapidly and reaches over 85% by 2035,entering the late stage of urbanization development;the proportion of ethnic population reaches over 56%by 2035,and ethnic people still occupy the main position,reflecting the unity and friendliness of ethnic relations and the superiority of China’s ethnic policy.Based on the research results,we propose the following recommendations:(1)Adhere to the development of gender equalization: guarantee the equal social status of men and women;change the traditional gender concept.(2)Coordinate the integrated development of urban and rural areas: adhere to the integrated development of urban and rural areas,smooth the flow of urban and rural factors;adhere to the “Rural Revitalization Strategy”,and ensure the priority development of agriculture and rural areas.(3)Deepen ethnic unity: strengthen the foundation for the development of ethnic minorities,implement the “three children” policy,and improve the quantity and quality of the ethnic minority population;forge a firm sense of Chinese ethnic community,safeguard the fundamental interests of all ethnic groups,and consolidate and develop socialist ethnic relations of equality,unity,mutual assistance and harmony.