Research On The Effects Of Population Aging On The Household Consumption And Economic Growth In China

Population,as an important part of society,affects the speed and scale of economic and social development of a country.China recently has been faced with the the large number,the rapid growth,and the obvious regional differences in terms of the population aging.As the economy shifts from high-speed growth to high-quality development,it is of great significance for China to actively seek brand-new solutions to the popualiton aging.Based upon the Leslie population matrix model,the predictive results show that it is difficult to reverse the aging trend by the “universal two-child” policy alone which imposes some positive impacts indeed.Based upon the generational overlapping model and the old-age dependency ratio representing the aging factor,the theoretical study analyzes the impact of population aging on household consumption and economic growth of China.Based upon the ARDL-ECM and the Panel-VAR fixed effect model,the empirical study shows that the impact of old-age dependency ratio on household consumption is insignificant,and the aging boosts the short-term economic growth but threatens the long-term economic growth.The empirical research on the impacts of both consumption and economic growth shows that the influence of old-age dependency ratio on household consumption is insignificant,and the increase of per capita income is not conducive to the improvement of household consumption level in the long run.