A Comparative Study Of Quarterly GDP Accounting And Its Benchmarking With Annual GDP

With the gradual advancement of the world economic development process and the continuous improvement of the social operation order,the requirements of the world for macroeconomic accounting work are becoming stricter.They are no longer just satisfied with the annual national economic accounting,and the quarterly GDP accounting that can monitor short-term economic development changes and forecast economic turning points begins to shine.Quarterly GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced in a country or region during a quarter,and is a comprehensive quarterly time series system based on the SNA accounting framework.It is consistent with the annual national economic accounting in terms of basic concepts,statistical caliber and indicator structure.As an indispensable part of national economic accounting,quarterly GDP accounting is more time-sensitive than annual GDP accounting.It can effectively and comprehensively display the recent economic development panorama,support monetary policy and fiscal policy formulation,and analyze business cycle.And it is an effective tool for determining the economic turning point.Since the European Union first gave a simplified framework for quarterly GDP accounting in the SEC-TRI document in 1972,quarterly GDP accounting has gradually become an important tool for short-term economic analysis.With the increasing international attention to quarterly GDP accounting,some international organizations,developed countries,and academic institutions are all committed to research on issues such as the accounting scope,accounting methods,data sources,seasonal adjustment,benchmarking Methods of quarterly GDP and annual GDP data,published a number of versions of the quarterly GDP accounting manual.Among them,the latest and most authoritative quarterly GDP accounting manual is the "QUARTERLY NATIONAL ACCOUNTS MANUAL" published by the International Monetary Fund(IMF)in 2017,referred to the "2017QNAM".The manual provides an internationally recognized QNA data generation framework,and the methods and concepts described are also related to "the 2008 System of National Accounts System(2008SNA)","Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual Sixth Edition(BPM6)","Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014(GFSM2014)" and "Monetary And Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide(MFSMCG)".Since 1992,the National Bureau of Economic Affairs of the National Bureau of Statistics of China has started quarterly GDP accounting and compiled the “China Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Calculation Method”,which systematically introduces the methods and practices used in China's accounting.After that,the National Bureau of Statistics carried out a series of reforms on China's quarterly GDP accounting system according to the needs of economic development and statistical accounting.However,compared with international standards,China's quarterly GDP accounting work started late,and there are still many areas for improvement.Based on the theoretical basis of 2017 QNAM on quarterly GDP accounting and its benchmarking with annual GDP,this paper studies the impact of quarterly GDP accounting system and different benchmarking methods on the effect of quarterly GDP and annual GDP,it is of great value to deeply understand the accounting theory of quarterly national accounts,enrich and improve China's national economic accounting system,and improve the quality of statistical accounting data.Firstly,based on 2017 QNAM,the quarterly national accounts are analyzed in detail from the six aspects of accounting scope,accounting methods,data sources,from shallow to deep,and the differences between the old and new versions are summarized according to the overall outline and specific content.Secondly,The method of quarterly GDP benchmarking with annual GDP is systematically expounded,including the pro rata distribution method,the proportional Denton method,enhancement for extrapolation of the proportional Denton method,the proportional Cholette–Dagum method with autoregressive Error and the Chow-Lin method.Carry out theoretical comparative analysis and compare the specific characteristics and advantages and disadvantages of different benchmarking methods.Then,according to the four major economic divisions: the eastern region,the western region,the northeast region,and the central region,Shanghai,Gansu,Jilin,and Henan provinces were selected as research objects,among which the Henan Province's GDP was the key research object.In detail,Shanghai,Gansu and Jilin provinces with large differences in economic strength are used as auxiliary to conduct empirical analysis to improve the credibility of the analysis results.It is concluded that each province and city has its most suitable benchmarking method,and the scope of the specific prediction error is still related to the quality of the original data.Finally,This paper briefly reviews the development history of China's quarterly GDP accounting.According to the detailed analysis of the logical sequence of 2017 QNAM,it clarifies China's current quarterly GDP accounting and its benchmarking with annual GDP data.And to point out that China's quarterly GDP accounting system still has a series of problems such as single accounting method,limited data source and low utilization rate,and old quarter and annual data benchmarking methods,which can be based on the recommendations of 2017 QNAM to improve China's quarterly GDP accounting and its benchmarking with annual GDP.