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The Analysis Of Influencing Factors Of Chinese Women's Fertility Willingness

Posted on:2020-10-25Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y Y MaFull Text:PDF
GTID:2417330578451084Subject:Applied statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The size of the population is an important factor affecting the quality and competitiveness of the social development of a nation.China is a country with a large population.In the 1980 s,due to the limitation of natural resources and productivity,and the population growth trend is relatively fast,in order to avoid the negative impact of the population explosion,China has introduced a one-child family planning policy.The implementation of the family planning policy has effectively controlled the population growth rate in China.Since 1987,the proportion of the working-age population has continued to increase,and the “demographic dividend” has been highlighted,and the rate of economic development has increased significantly.However,due to the family planning policy and the ideas put forward,the fertility willingness of women of childbearing age in China is significantly reduced.The proportion of the labor force has decreased,and the social pressure of young people has increased dramatically.In 2015,China implemented a comprehensive second-child policy,but the population growth rate only had a significant effect in the first year of the new policy promulgation.In 2017,it showed a downward trend,and the fertility levels of the provinces did not rise.This shows that women's fertility will not only be subject to policy intervention,but the reasons for their impact are complex.The fertility levels in different regions are not completely equal,so the causes of women ' s fertility willingness and fertility decision-making in different regions are also different.However,by observing the data of each year,women's fertility will be subject to changes in external conditions,and the social processes and micro-individual factors may affect their own fertility decisions.Therefore,understanding the current status of fertility willingness of women of childbearing age in China,from the macro and micro perspectives to analyze its influencing factors,has important significance for social and economic development.This paper mainly uses the analysis of data from the China Statistical Yearbook,the recent two censuses,and the China Health and Nutrition Survey.After a descriptive statistical analysis of the status quo and population structure of China's fertility level,it is found that China's birth rate has been developing at an increasingly low level.Although China has already liberalized birth restrictions,that is,the implementation of the secondchild policy,the effect is not satisfactory.Using the China Health and Nutrition Survey data,a preliminary understanding of women's fertility preferences,including fertility intentions and birth planning,ideal children and gender preferences.Secondly,the indicators of individuals,families and communities that may affect the fertility will be screened,and the Poisson regression model is established with the ideal number of children as the dependent variable.The results show that there is a difference in fertility willingness between urban and rural areas,and housing pressure will significantly reduce women's willingness to bear.The level of education also plays a vital role in the fertility willingness.The higher the education level of women,the higher the willingness to give birth,the more perfect the system of community education development,and the more likely women of childbearing age to raise their children.China has a vast territory,and there are large differences in cultural concepts and economic levels between different regions.Therefore,fertility will have different performances in different regions,and the influencing factors will be different.On the basis of understanding the specific implementation rules of the family planning policies of different provinces,combined with the regional fertility rate in the census data,it is found that the family planning policy can affect the fertility level to a certain extent,but it is not the leading cause.According to the geographical location,the 12 provinces involved in the CHNS survey are divided into 6 regions,and the influencing factors are analyzed separately.The results showed that the fertility willingness of women of childbearing age in different regions and the significant factors affecting them showed a certain degree of difference.Even the same indicators may have different roles in different regions.Therefore,different regions need to grasp the main contradictions when formulating corresponding policy measures to adjust the population size.Finally,based on the conclusions drawn from the research,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions for all aspects of society.
Keywords/Search Tags:Procreate intention, Procreate plan, Poisson regression, CHNS
PDF Full Text Request
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