Study On Regional Differentiation Of The Impact Of China's Aging Population On Housing Market Demand

At present,China's housing market has ended a high growth period for a decade or more,and has entered in a more gradual stage of volatility growth.The growth of real estate prices in some cities in China has been exhausted,and the housing sales area has even experienced a short-term falling tendency.All of the above phenomena reflect the possibility for slide of the regional market demand.At the same time,China has already entered in an aging society,and its total number of elderly people ranks first in the world.Most scholars at home and abroad believe that the housing market will be affected by the deepening of the aging phenomenon.Therefore,it is particularly important to maintain the stability of the domestic housing market and promote the healthy development of the housing market at the current stage.Considering the typical regional nature of the housing market,this paper explores the current situation and future trends of housing demand in the context of population aging based on regional differences,and formulates targeted property market policies based on housing market differences in different regions.This paper first theoretically expounds the theory of housing demand and the theory of regional differences in housing market,and discusses the transmission effect of population aging on the demand of housing market.And then the domestic housing sales area and housing price under the background of aging are analyzed.Through the system clustering method,31 provinces in the country are divided into four regions:a region with developed economy,a region with slightly developed economy,a region with generally developed economy,a region with underdeveloped economy.Based on the annual data of 31 provinces from 2005 to 2017,the panel data fixed effect model was constructed.The old-age dependency ratio and housing sales were used as explanatory variables and explanatory variables of the model,and based on the analysis of the influencing factors of housing demand in the theoretical part,control variables were added to the model.The empirical analysis of the variables shows that due to the differences in the housing market regions,the aging of the population has a positive impact on the region with developed economies,slightly developed economy and underdeveloped economy.It has a negative impact on the region with generallydeveloped economy.The significance of the difference is also different while affecting different regions.The empirical results of the regions with slightly developed economy and generally developed economy are more significant,followed by the region with developed economy,and the empirical result of the region with underdeveloped economy is not significant.Finally,combined with the above research conclusions,four suggestions for different regional differences are proposed: coordinating regional economical development;increasing the supply of affordable housing;accelerating the urbanization process,increasing the construction of small-sized housing;and actively responding to population aging in various regions.