Study On The Coupling Relationship Between Population And Economy In Xinjiang

With a large number of ethnic groups and a wide population distribution in Xinjiang,the economic development level of each prefecture is different and has obvious structural differences.Whether the relationship between population and economy is reasonable and whether the spatial distribution is matched is particularly important for the coordinated development of population and economy in Xinjiang.Based on the above considerations,this paper focuses on the population and economic relations in Xinjiang,and uses theoretical analysis and econometric model methods to focus on the coupling of population and economy.The research findings are as follows:The decoupling of Xinjiang's population from its economic aggregate is generally weak.The primary industry has the tendency to change from weak decoupling to other unreasonable decoupling relations.The decoupling index of the secondary industry fluctuates greatly and the relationship between population and economy tends to coordinate.The population and economy of the tertiary industry are in a reasonable range,and the development relationship is relatively benign.According to the co-integration test results,there is a long-term stable equilibrium state between population and economic increment in Xinjiang.In the short term,although there is no obvious Granger causality between population increment and economic increment,the growth of population is more able to stimulate economic growth.There are obvious differences in population and economic distribution among xinjiang prefectures.There are three types: economic advance,coordination and population advance.Urumqi,Karamay,Turpan,Hami,Changji and Bayin are economically advanced,while Ili,Altay,Aksu,Kizilesu,Kashgar and Hetian are mainly economically backward.In addition,the degree of deviation varies from state to state.The deviation index of Kashgar and Hotan areas with backward economic development and large population is greater than 3.The deviation index of Urumqi and Karamay,which developed rapidly,is greater than 1,which is a deviation caused by economic development faster than population growth.From the global and local Moran indexes,it can be seen that the prefectures with low population and economic deviation indexes have obvious spatial aggregation characteristics.In addition,the coupling degree of population and economy in Xinjiang is mainly mild and moderate,and the imbalance caused by population lag is mainly distributed in northern Xinjiang,while the imbalance caused by economic lag is mainly concentrated in southern Xinjiang.