An Empirical Enalysis Of The Relationship Between Population Aging And Service Industry Structure Upgrading

Under the influence of the national policy of family planning and other multiple factors,the proportion of the population aged 65 and above in China is increasing year by year,and the aging degree is gradually deepening.The deepening of China’s aging population will inevitably have an impact on the number and structure of the labor force,triggering supply-side changes.There are different consumption demand structures between the elderly population and other age groups.With the rapid increase of the number of the elderly population,there will be new demand for the consumer market,which will change the consumption structure,and then affect the demand side.The development of social economy,the industrial structure will be as the change of supply and demand and produce corresponding change.Therefore,in the context of the social development of aging population,exploring its relationship with the upgrading of China’s service industry structure is conducive to China’s adaptation to the new situation and new requirements of population aging and economic development,to the timely discovery of various problems on the road of service industry development and population aging development,and to the timely formulation of relevant policies to deal with the challenges brought about by population aging.Based on the current domestic and foreign studies on the relationship between population aging and industrial upgrading,this paper analyzes the national data from both theoretical and empirical aspects,and explores the relationship between population aging and the upgrading of service industry structure.In theory,starting from the two levels of production and consumption demand,this paper explores the path and effect of population aging on the upgrading of the internal structure of service industry.In terms of empirical analysis,grey relational degree analysis method and spatial panel model method were adopted to conduct modeling analysis on relevant data of 30 provinces from 2000 to 2017,so as to explore the actual influence relationship between the two.The results show that: firstly,according to grey correlation analysis,it is found that the four service industries,including accommodation and catering,have the highest correlation with population aging,and the correlation between population aging and consumer services is higher than that of producer services.Secondly,through space since the correlation inspection,it is found that there are obvious differences in the level of service industry development in the spatial scope.Moreover,data validation shows that,shows that the upgrading level of the internal structure of the service industry also has spatial dependence and aggregation,which indicates that the upgrading level of the service industry in this region will be affected by the upgrading level of the service industry in the surrounding areas.Thirdly,by establishing the stochastic effect model of spatial lagging panel,it is found that there is a significant negative correlation between population aging and service industry upgrading index,which indicates that the current population aging has a more significant effect on the consumption demand of service industry,while the promoting effect on producer service industry is relatively weak.