A Study On The Change Of Fertility Level Of China's Population And Its Influence Factors

At the moment,our country is at a lower fertility.The age structure of China's population is gradually presenting an aging trend due to the increasingly declining birthrate and increasing aging populations.Based on this situation,adjusting the birth policy and optimizing the population structure have become another choice in the family planning process.The changes in China's fertility and the influence factors of changes in fertility are reviewed and analyzed.It has an important theoretical meaning and practical value to clarify the rules and characteristics of fertility changes in China,to better encourage policy-based fertility related with the economic and social supporting policies and to achieve the appropriate fertility levels,optimize population structure and promote populations' balanced development.Based on the large-scale macro-data,the study about changes in the fertility level of China's population since 1949 found that there were obvious stage characteristics of China's population fertility: on the whole,it showed the “first high and then low” trend.However,the differential characteristics of different stages were also more significant;the main factors affecting the fertility level of the population in each stage were also different.The first stage: from 1949 to 1978,the fertility level was mainly affected by the natural and social environment,and the independent fertility(introduced by the family planning policy in the later stage)was maintained at a higher level,but the population fertility rapidly fell during the three-year natural disasters.The second stage: from 1978 to 2013,it was mainly the fertility selection that was led by the policy restrictions and economic and social factors.The fertility level experienced a transition from high to low.The third stage: China has begun to improve the family planning policy and implement the “only two-child and “full two-child” policies since 2013,and the fertility has not been gradually limited,but it is subject to many factors such as economy,society,fertility culture and concept as well as the fertility environment,so the fertility levels rise slightly and then fall.At the same time,the study also found that there were regional differences in the fertility level of the China's population.The fertility levels in different regions are different.The fertility level in the western region is the highest,followed by the eastern region while the central region is the lowest.The fertility levels vary among provinces.In addition,the future populations' fertility level is analyzed and predicted in the paper and it finds that the future fertility level will be further reduced.Under total fertility rate remains at 1.8(program),the number of populations in China will continue to decrease,and the population is expected to drop to 12.3134 million in 2050.The factors affecting the total fertility rate in China are studied in this paper through the Stata13.0 software,the statistics data from 1950 to 2017 and Johansen co-integration test and vector error correction model in terms of quantitative analysis.The study found that the main factors affecting the change of fertility level included the economy,education,medical as well as the population development.It is believed that even if the medical level is improved,the fertility level will continue to remain at a low level and may remain decrease at a long time among the economic and social development,the improvement of education level and the increase of the population's development level.Based on the above analysis,this paper is concluded that the changes in the fertility level of China's population show the stage characteristics and regional differences;the decline of population fertility level is the fundamental situation of population development under the influence of multiple factors;the effect of fertility policy affecting the changes of population fertility level will decline;it is imperative to encourage policy-based fertility related with the economic and social supporting policies.Finally,this paper proposes to optimize the environment,create a pretty external atmosphere of fertility;the internal motivation to promote birth is completed by developing family atmosphere;the population' quantity and quality are optimized through the strategic guidance;a friendly supporting policy of fertility is made by improving the systems;the policy recommendations about low fertility levels should be rationally and scientifically analyzed.