Relationship And Coordinate Development Between Fertility And Social Elderylnsurance Expenditure Level

The birth-control policy since more than30years ago has suffered great changesand these will continue in the future. The birth-control policywill develop in thechildren-born permission from only one-child to second child to family planning,fromsomefamilies to all. The birth-policy will transform inevitably from state planningto family planning,and birth-control policy will be out of date at last.The long birth-control policy in china has lead to an unnormal populationstructure, resulting in a series of issues, such as low fertility, unbalanced male-femalerate, and etc. all these above can only be corrected or solved gradually in othernon-government coercion methods.Then after the birth-control policy, which methods can be used to adjust thefertility and deal with the issues related to population development? The emperiesforeign developed countries tell us the social endowment insurance system especiallyin elderly security can do these well, which is be an effective method in the fertilityadjustment, even for different fertility goal, for different crowdsand for differentareas.Based on this references, relationship between the social elderly insuranceexpenditure level and fertility rate is analyzed for the scientific fertility and socialelderly insurance in the methods of qualitative and quantitative, and proposals aremade for the coordinate development between these two.The study began from the analysis and the prediction of social elderly insuranceexpenditure level and fertility. Data shows that the social elderly insurance expenditurelevel will be higher and higher, while fertility will be in the opposite tendency. Thesewill be no benefits tothe population development or the social elderly insurance system.It is necessary to discuss whether there exists some relationship betweenthe socialelderly insurance expenditure level and the fertility.The relationship between the social elderly insurance expenditure level and thefertility is built based on the theoretical analysis and empirical test. The former isbased on the model of two parameters according to thedemographic transition theory,the utility theory and the intergeneration transfer theory. The model shows thatinsufficient social elderly insurance expenditure levelfromless contribution will resultin the improvement of fertility, while that from more benefit will be on the contrary.This conclusionproves there exists the relationship between the social elderlyinsurance expenditure level and fertility, and tells different shortage in social elderlyinsurance expenditure level has different effect on the fertility.The empirical test includes two. One is the existencetesting of theirrelationship.Based on the samples from1980to2012in china, the Granger casualtytests are applied. The test results show that the social elderly insurance expenditurelevel is the Granger casualty of fertility and there also exists long-term equilibriumrelationship. However, fertility is not the Granger casualty of the social elderlyinsurance expenditure level. Forfurther study in this relationship, the multivariateanalysis is also used. The regression result indicates that gender distribution, ratiobetween the urban population and the rural population and the social elderly insuranceexpenditure level have significant effects on fertility, and social elderly insuranceexpenditure level has the negative effect on the fertility.1percent of improvement forthe social elderly insurance expenditure level can result the decrement of fertility by0.69%.The results not only ensure the scientific of theabove theoretical analysis, butalso provide us the way to coordinate these two.The further goal to study the relationship is prompt their coordination based ontheir separate scientific development. Firstly, it is necessary to know the domesticsituation. The method of cluster analysis is used in the fertility, social elderly insuranceand per capita GDP. Based on the cluster analysis, the coordination degrees betweenthe two among31provinces in China are studied. The study shows that only in veryfew provinces these two coordinate well, and for those with low fertility the level ishigher than the coordinatedlevel, and for those less-developing provinces, the level arethe opposite. Secondly, foreign references are made for the scientific practices. In thechapter, the typical countriesare elected and analyzed, such asRussia with the mosturgency to increase the fertility in Europe, and Japan, with the most similar to China inpopulation and economy in Asia, and Africa.Their experience and lessons remind usthat it is time to adjust thebirth control policy in China. The fertilityshould not fallfurther. Thirdly, ways to scientific development of these two is proposed. For thefertility, the realization of scientifi development needs gradual change in the birthpolicy from current control planning policy to the finnal family planning. And for the level, less expenditure and more incomeare ways are both to balance the level of socialelderly insurance. Their scientific developments are the base of the coordinatedevelopment. Fourthly, Suggestion is made for their coordinate development in twoways.On one hand, children number in familities should be considered in insurancebenefit design to coordinate“family benefit” and “social benefit”. On the other hand,the regional should also be considered to realize the balanced in benefit demand andsupplyto sustainable the population and social elderly insurance system.On account of the previous achievements, the paper has mainly three creativeobjects as follows:Firstly, conception is innovative. Relationship between the social ederly insuranceexpenditure level and fertility is verified and provides a method of revising thepopulation policy effectively and improving the social endowment insurance to thegovernment.Secondly, researth method is innovative. Firstly, the cluster analysis is applied.As for the cluster analysis, the evaluation criterion of the fertility in certain area is notjust the fertility. The fertility, social elderly insurance and per capita GDP are selectedto evaluate the economical development's effect on the fertility and economy's abilityof supplying the social elderly insurance is considered at the same time. Secondly, theGranger casualty is applied on the testing of relationshipexistence. And the fact thatthe social elderly insurance is the Granger casualty of the total fertility is verified.Lastly, concept is innovative.The relationship between the social ederly insuranceexpenditure level and the fertility is confirmed based on the theoretical analysis andempirical test. At the same time, the proposals about the coordinate developmentbetween the social elderly insurance expenditure level and the fertility are proposedbased on the domestic current situation and foreign experience.