The Influence Of Population Aging On Industrial Structure Upgrading

The gradual aging of the population,on the one hand,leads to greater dependency pressure,on the other hand,it leads to a reduction in labor supply,making China's past development model of relying on the demographic dividend to provide cheap labor unsustainable.However,the aging population structure is a blessing and a curse.Although there are drawbacks,it is beneficial to force the industrial transformation and stimulate the development of new demand and new industries.How to solve the problems caused by the increasing number of elderly people?What is the future development trend of the industry?All of them need correct guiding ideology to reduce the cost of trial and error.This paper discusses the influence of population aging on industrial structure from two dimensions of theory and demonstration.On the theoretical level: through sorting out Chinese and foreign literature,the research results of many scholars are roughly classified as the aging population affects the upgrading of industrial structure through two ways: demand and supply.The demand approaches mainly include the consumption demand effect of the elderly,the dependency burden of the elderly,the change of enterprises' demand for capital and technology,etc.The supply way has: the labor endowment theory,the labor productivity theory,the human capital accumulation theory and so on viewpoint.Empirical level: the data source is panel data of about 270 prefecture-level cities.Firstly,ols and fixed effects were used to carry out the benchmark regression,and it was found that population aging promoted the upgrading of industrial structure,which was promoted by inhibiting manufacturing industry and promoting the development of service industry.Secondly,in order to solve the existing endogeneity problem,the instrumental variable method(IV)and generalized moment estimation(GMM)were used to further verify the robustness of the results and solve the endogeneity.Finally,using the threshold model,found that the threshold in the process of variable across the threshold,an aging population for the promotion of industrial structure upgrade function has become obvious,therefore can draw and the effect of using a mediation model similar but more abundant results: control variables across the threshold,can make the ageing of the role of promoting industrial upgrading is more apparent,improve the ratio of 1.2 times to 1.6 times.Based on the statistical data and the academic achievements of scholars,this paper finds that few scholars have conducted regression analysis on city-level data,and few have analyzed the influence of control variables on the subject by means of threshold regression.Therefore,based on these innovative points,this paper hopes to make a little contribution to the stable development of national economy.