Spatial Analysis Of Spatial-temporal Characteristics And Factors Of Provincial Logistics Development Level

With the deepening of reform and opening up,the logistics industry,as a composite service industry that integrates warehousing,transportation,packaging and information industries,plays an important role in stimulating consumption,promoting production and creating employment,and becomes an important object of supply-side structural reforms.Its healthy development also has a positive effect on the rational operation of the economic society.However,there is no detailed understanding of the spatial differentiation degree and driving factors of China's provincial logistics development level,so it has great practical significance to conduct reasonable research on it.Firstly,this paper constructs an indicator system from four aspects: economic level,logistics scale,infrastructure and industrial structure.The improved entropy method model with increased time dimension is used to measure the development level of provincial logistics comprehensively,and then to analyze its basic situation and time trends from horizontal and vertical angle.The results show that the logistics industry in China is in a stable rising stage,and the development level of logistics between provinces is significantly different,showing a gradual decrease from the eastern coastal to the central and western regions.Secondly,statistical methods and social network analysis are combined to study the spatial-temporal characteristics of logistics development level.Firstly,this paper constructs the spatial weight matrix of logistics industry based on gravity model,and use exploratory spatial data analysis method to study the spatial-temporal characteristics of provincial logistics development level.Then social network analysis technology is introduced,and spatial correlation network of logistics development is constructed to analyze its time and space evolution trend from the perspective of network.The results show that there is a significant spatial aggregation effect in development level of provincial logistics.The central provinces of the correlation network change,the role of different provinces in the network are different,and the spatial relationship of provincial logistics development level is complex increasingly.Therefore,the spatial effect cannot be ignored when studying the factors that affect the development level of provincial logistics.Finally,this paper introduces the dynamic spatial panel model to analyze the driving factors of provincial logistics development level.Based on the logistics gravitational spatial weight matrix and the geographical adjacent spatial weight matrix,the static and dynamic spatial dubin models are established respectively.The partial derivative method is used to decompose the explanatory variables for long-term and short-term effects,thus has an in-depth analysis about the spatial spillover effect of provincial logistics development level.The results show that the logistics gravitational spatial weight matrix is superior to the geographical adjacent spatial weight matrix in the test of spatial autocorrelation and the fitting of the model,which embodies the feasibility of the spatial weight matrix construction method.The development of provincial logistics has dynamic continuity characteristics,and the driving factors of the logistics industry will change in different periods.The dynamic spatial panel model can explain the driving mechanism that affects the level development of the provincial logistics more reasonably.Accoding to the research results of this paper,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.