Gender Imbalance,House Price Rise And Chinese Residents' Saving Rate

China's gender imbalances,high housing prices and savings rates have caused widespread concern.China's housing prices have risen year after year,causing housing difficulties,affecting the economic well-being of hundreds of millions of families,and adversely affecting the sustained,stable and healthy development of China's economy.The lack of consumer demand caused by the high savings rate has adversely affected the sustained and steady development of China's economy.The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that it is necessary to improve the institutional mechanisms for promoting consumption and enhance the fundamental role of consumption in economic development.This paper empirically examines the relationship between gender imbalance,housing price increase,and household savings rate using the 2004-2017 provincial panel data and the 2013 China Household Income Survey data.This paper firstly uses the inter-provincial panel data from 2004 to 2017 to empirically study the impact of gender imbalance on housing price rise.After adding a series of control variables from the supply and demand of the real estate market,consider “marriage squeeze” and use tool variables to solve the problem.On the basis of the problem of sexuality,it is found that gender imbalance is an important reason for the rise in housing prices: every 1 percentage point increase in the sex ratio of the marriage population will lead to an increase in the average price of residential commercial housing and commercial housing by about 0.81 and 0.61 percentage points respectively,which can explain 2010-2017.Two types of housing prices rose by 12.5% and 13.1%.Changing the different indicators to measure the sex ratio,the results maintain a considerable degree of stability.This paper also uses the 2013 China Household Income Survey urban household data to empirically study the impact of gender imbalance on household savings,and then examine the effectiveness of housing prices as an intermediate mechanism of competitive savings spillovers.After controlling the family socio-economic characteristics,family demographic characteristics,household characteristics and macroeconomic characteristics,a multivariate regression model was used to examine the impact of gender imbalances on family savings rates among boys and girls.In order to capture the differences in heterogeneity between different families,we conducted a sample-by-sample regression analysis.The empirical results show that: overall,we did not observe the impact of gender imbalance on household savings rate;but we observed that the eastern region increased household savings with gender imbalance.The rate of decline has increased with the increase of gender imbalance in the central and western regions;the gender imbalance has led to an increase in the household savings rate only in low-income families.The highincome families have increased their gender imbalance,and their household savings rate has shown a downward trend;gender imbalance has promoted the household savings rate.The rise only works after the child enters the age of marriage;whether in the full sample analysis or in the sample regression,the coefficient of household savings rate is negative or insignificant for the return of housing prices,which means that housing prices cannot become competition.The intermediate mechanism of the spillover effect of sexual savings.This article may have two innovations.First,the gender composition of the population as an important part of the regional population structure has had an important impact on housing price increases.However,due to a series of possible endogenous problems such as missing variables,two-way causality and marriage squeeze,the existing literature does not identify the causal relationship between gender imbalances and housing price increases.We use the 2004-2017 provincial panel data to use family planning.Execution intensity as a tool variable quantitatively examined the causal relationship between the two.Second,we point out that Wei and Zhang(2011)may have problems in the empirical study of competitive savings theory as the intermediate mechanism of the “sinking effect” of competitive savings theory,and conducted empirical tests to obtain a possibility.A more robust conclusion.We also examine other "spill-over effects" mechanisms of competitive savings theory based on their research.This may be a useful complement to the theory of competitive savings.