Whether The Decline Of Marriage Will Lead To The Decline Of Household Saving Rate

The saving rate of China's family sector has been at a high level,and it has been in a continuous upward trend until 2010.The debate about which factors caused the high saving rate of the family sector has never stopped in the academic community,and the saving rate of the family sector has always been one of the hot areas of research.Scholars have put forward many valuable theories to explain the phenomenon of high household saving rate from different aspects.However,after2010,there was a turning point in China's household sector savings rate.On the premise that many macro factors have not changed significantly,the emergence of the turning point was unexpected for the proponents of various theories,and also brought a certain impact to various theories.Marriage is an important part of Confucian social relations.Family saving for children's marriage has a long cultural tradition in China.The competitive saving theory is based on this cultural foundation.The theory believes that the imbalance of gender ratio in recent decades has led to the high saving rate in the family sector.But unfortunately,when the inflection point of family savings rate appears,the gender ratio of marriageable young people has not changed significantly,and the ability ofcompetitive savings theory to explain the reality has been greatly reduced.We have critically inherited the viewpoint of competitive savings theory.First of all,by using the Chinese Family Panel Studies database(CFPS),we have proved that there is indeed a phenomenon of saving for children's marriage at the micro family level,and the premise of the establishment of competitive savings theory is indeed there.On this basis,we further analyze the micro family data,combined with the empirical analysis of macro data,and find that the transmission mechanism of micro family behavior affecting the savings rate of macro family sector is not through the imbalance of the gender ratio of marriageable men and women,but through the macro view of marriage willingness at the social level.The imbalance of the sex ratio of marriageable men and women in a certain period of time has significantly improved the social willingness to marry through the scarcity of marriage resources.However,with the continuous development of the economy,the attitude of contemporary youth towards marriage itself has changed dramatically.At present,there is the fourth "single tide" phenomenon in the society,and the overall marriage willingness of marriageable youth at the social level in China has declined It also leads to the turning point of savings rate in the macro household sector.Although the household sector savings rate has gradually declined since 2010,compared with the world average,the current household savings rate in China is still at a high level.Although the higher household savings rate enhances the ability of the family to resist the uncertainty risk to some extent,and provides a strong guarantee for the enterprise sector investment,on the other hand,household savings cannot be effectively transformed into consumption,which to some extent also restricts the long-term healthy development of China's economy,and is not conducive to the structural optimization of China's financial system.In order to make our family consumption savings structure more reasonable,we believe that the government should guide young people to have a more rational and correct view of marriage and love.We should take the essence and discard the dross and establish the concept ofequality between men and women in the traditional cultural concept,and at the same time,we should pay attention to narrowing the social income gap,reduce the structural contradictions in the marriage market,and promote social harmony and stability.