Statistical Analysis For Population Migration In Fujian Province

Population migration,which affects the structure,economic development,medical care and education of the region's population,is an inevitable outcome of the development and progress of human society.As well as,population migration is affected by the level of economic development,the degree of population policy implementation,natural conditions,and society environment.The study of population migration has always been an important part of population research,and population issues have always been a fundamental problem faced by human society,as well as a global and strategic issue.Therefore,the issue of population migration has always been the point of the government and society.It is of great significance to promote the economic and social in Fujian province that how to grasp accurately the influencing factors,main characteristics,regional differences,and future trends of population migration in Fujian Province,also and how to deal with the challenges brought by population migration.In this paper,basing on the existed statistical data the current situation,influencing factors and trends of population migration in Fujian will be discussed.In the first chapter,the descriptive statistics about the current situation of population migration in Fujian from the perspective of population migration rate and migration population characteristics are present.The statistical analysis on the current situation of population migration in Fujian is carried out by using cluster analysis,Wilcoxon rank test,correspondence analysis and other methods.In the second chapter,ten factors representing economic development,medical level and employment demands are selected to discuss the influencing factors of the net migration rate of Fujian.There is a clear correlation between all factors and net migration rate.The network model eliminates the problem of collinearity between influencing factors.Comparing with the results of the ridge regression and lasso regression,the results show that there are four variables affecting the net migration rate of population in Fujian.The proportion of the primary industry's production value has the greatest impact.The proportion of the primary industry's production value,the proportion of the primaryindustry employees have a positive correlation with the net migration rate.The proportion of production value,the proportion of employees in the secondary industry have a negative correlation with the net migration rate.In the third chapter,the ARMA model and the nonparametric autoregressive model to fit the prediction of the net mobility sequence in Fujian are established,and comparing the fitting results of the two models with the elastic network model,it shows that the fitting results of the nonparametric autoregressive model is best.The effect is better than the ARMA model and the elastic network model.According to the prediction results,it shows that the net migration rate in Fujian will be still in a downward trend in the future five years,but the overall level will be still the net migration level.In the fourth chapter,it is mainly to summarize the study above,put forward suggestions and research prospects.Optimizing the industrial structure,appropriately protecting the primary industry,appropriately reducing the access requirements and improving their own attractiveness are suggested to improve the net migration rate of Fujian.