Research On Performance Evaluation Of Comprehensive Two-Child Policy Based On Fractional-Order GM(1,1) Model

China puts forward a newly fertility management policy after single two-child policy.Its implementation effect directly concerns not only how we solve the population problem we face now,but also has important meaning to our country's population balanced development in the future.Therefore,the evaluation of the implementation effect of the comprehensive two-child policy plays an important role in exploring the effect and its impact,correctly determining the policy direction and promoting the realization of policy objectives.In order to systematically analyze and evaluate the implementation effect of the comprehensive two-child policy,This study adopts the policy analysis method to build a comprehensive two-child policy performance evaluation model based on the establishment of the fractional-order GM(1,1)population forecasting model.The performance evaluation of comprehensive two-child policy provides a reference to adjust and complete the fertility policy,to solve the population problem at present and to promote the population long-term balanced development.Firstly,this article confirmed evaluation indexes of the policy evaluation model as the total population,the birth rate and the population structure.Then,a fractional-order GM(1,1)population forecasting model was established to predict the numerical value of 2016-2018 based on the data of various evaluation indexes from 2009 to 2015,which was used as the evaluation index.Finally,compared the actual index value after the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy of the evaluation index value through the policy analysis,constructs a performance evaluation model of the comprehensive two-child policy,and makes a systematic evaluation of the implementation effect of the comprehensive two-child policy from three aspects of the total population,the birth rate and the population structure.The evaluation results show that the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy has caused a short-term rise in fertility and then quickly dropped.In 2020,China's total population of 1.42 billion and the total fertility rate of 1.8 would be difficult to achieve.At the same time,it is also difficult to achieve the policy objectives to solve the population problems such as the disappearance of the demographic dividend,the serious aging and the increase of the total dependency ratio.In order to optimize the implementation effect of China's comprehensive two-child policy,this article analyzes the performance evaluation results and reasons of comprehensive two-child policy and puts forward the following suggestions: reduce the cost of child rearing and the economic pressure of family birth;Ensure the equality of women's employment and ease the contradiction between women's fertility and employment;Rational allocation of public service resources to create a social environment where people want to live;Improve the social old-age service system to solve the current aging problem;To monitor and evaluate the effect of policy implementation,and adjust and improve the birth policy in time.