Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On The Export Of High-tech Products

The existing literature pays less attention to the relationship between the country's demographic factors and the export of high-tech products.Existing literature pays less attention to the link between country demographics and high-tech product exports.This paper uses data from 75 countries in 2007-2018 to research the impact of population aging on high-tech product exports,the mechanism of action,and the threshold effect of institutional quality.Through theoretical derivation and empirical analysis,the following conclusions are found: Increased population aging in a country has a significant negative impact on exports of high-tech products.And the degree of population aging mainly affects the export of high-tech products by means of "cost effect" and "human capital effect".Further research found that the increase of population aging has less negative impact on the export of high-tech products in countries with higher institutional quality,while the opposite is true in countries with lower institutional quality.Specifically,this paper establishes a theoretical model,by expanding the research of Hallak and Sivadasan(2013),Tie and He(2019)firstly.Furthermore,the heterogeneity of population aging degree and institutional quality are introduced into the model,and then the research hypothesis of this paper is deduced.We find that the aging of the population is mainly through raising the "cost effect" of the company's marginal production cost,and reducing the "human capital effect" of the company's human capital level.The optimal solution of the technical content of products produced by enterprises under the condition of maximizing profits is low-tech products,which ultimately reduces the export of high-tech products in a country.Moreover,the level of institutional quality will alleviate the negative impact of the population aging on the export of high-tech products.Secondly,we use cross-border panel data to test the above hypotheses through panel fixed effect model,intermediary effect model and threshold model under unbalanced panel data.The empirical results show that the increase of population aging has a negative impact on the export of high-tech products and its influence mechanism.Under the background of China's entering an aging society and facing a more severe international trade situation,The research of this paper has a strong practical significance.The research of this paper holds that China should consider further liberalizing the birth policy,strengthen the human capital investment in higher education and training high-tech talents at the present stage.