The Research And Application Of Estimation Method Of Labor Demand In Planting Industry

In 2005,the Fifth Plenary Session of the Sixteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed a more far-reaching and more comprehensive requirement for the construction of a new socialist countryside in the new historical environment in order to achieve the goal of economic prosperity,complete facilities,beautiful environment and harmonious civilization.However,the existence of a large number of rural surplus laborers will generate the corresponding problems and hinder the development of the society.Therefore,it is very necessary to study the rural surplus labor force.At present,the existing studies mainly focus on the the transfer of rural surplus labor force and how to formulate policies.There are many different methods to estimate the number of rural surplus labor force,and there are few methods to predict the number of rural surplus labor force.Because planting industry is the main component of agriculture,the demand for labor force is the basis of estimating the amount of surplus labor force in rural areas,so this paper summarizes several existing methods of estimating the demand for labor force of planting industry and analyzes the shortcomings of each method.On this basis,the relationship model of mechanization degree and labor demand is improved.The improved method is to consider a variety of factors that affect the demand of the plantation labor force,and establish a mathematical model between the demand of labor force,the degree of mechanization and the planting area,and predict the degree of mechanization and the planting area in a certain area by the growth curve method and autoregressive model to predict the demand of labor force in planting industry.The research content of this paper mainly includes the following aspects:(1)On the basis of comprehensively considering the factors that affect the demand for crop labor of planting industry,the mathematical model of the demand for labor force of planting industry,the degree of mechanization and the planting area is established;(2)Through field investigation,the area of arable land that every labor force in Heilongjiang Province can afford when planting paddy field is obtained,and the data accord with normal distribution through the test;(3)According to the calculation,the cultivated land area in Heilongjiang Province is 1.45 hectares when the mechanization degree of the paddy is 0.When the mechanization degree is 100%,the affordable arable land area is 4.95 hectares;(4)Based on the growth curve and autoregressive model,it is predicted that the degree of mechanization and planting area of paddy fields in Heilongjiang Province are increasing at different speeds,and the demand of labor force for paddy fields in Heilongjiang Province is also increasing in the next 10 years.