The Linkage Study On Egg Prices In China

With the rapid development of agricultural economy and the advancement of animal husbandry,aquaculture technology,the egg production is playing more and more important role in animal husbandry.The price fluctuation of agricultural products is an important issue for people's livelihood.It does not only affect the stability of the agricultural product market,but also the income of farmers and the daily consumption of residents.In recent years,the price of eggs in China has been affected by regional factors,substitutions and costs effects causing unusual fluctuations.This has not only aggravated the risk in the layer industry,but also affects the consumption of low-income groups.Specific quantitative analysis is one of the hot topics in animal husbandry research thus this article employs this method.A systematic analysis of the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of egg prices was carried out.The fluctuation of egg prices mainly includes “M” shape characteristics,periodic characteristics,seasonal characteristics,and regional characteristics.These fluctuations are mainly affected by sudden factors,substitution factors,cost factors,and regional factors.In view of this,the article relies on regional economic theory,micro-macro economy theory,and econometric methods to conduct five researches on the fluctuation of egg prices:Firstly,the impact of regional factors on egg price fluctuations was analyzed.Regional factors are mainly reflected on provincial prices main producing egg and major sell provinces.Through exploring the successive linkages of price changes in different provinces,it is concluded that egg price change in the main producing areas is the main factor in regional factors;the article analyzed data from Beijing,Hebei,Shandong,Jiangsu,Hubei.Through the stability test of the correlation and the lagging test of the linkage relationship,it was the article found that the egg price changes in Hebei,Shandong,Jiangsu,and Hubei suffered a stable and obvious effect on the price of Beijing eggs for a long time.Secondly,the article analyzed the impact of substitution factor on egg price fluctuations.The alternative factors mainly include pork,beef,and mutton that are all as livestock products.The stability test and distributional delay test of the cross-price elasticity on the price of eggs and meat shows that the influence of pork,beef,and mutton on the price of eggs is small,but the eggs prices have a certain influence on meat.The lagging relationship between the price of eggs and meat weekly is most stable.Thirdly,the impact of cost factor on egg price fluctuations;this mainly include prices of corn,soybean meal and synthetic materials in feed ingredients.There exist linkage analysis between feed raw material price and egg prices,the cross-elasticity stability test and hysteresis distribution test concluded that egg prices are less affected by the cost in short term.The cost only limits the cost space of the egg price,but the egg price has a greater impact on the cost,and the lag impact relationship reached the two phases of the weekly price.Fourthly,the comprehensive analysis of the influencing factors of egg price fluctuations: The price fluctuation of eggs is mainly affected by regional factors.The price change factors in the main production regions have the greatest impact;the meat substitute factors in the consumption process and the feed ingredients factors in the cost have little effect on the fluctuation of the egg prices.Fifty,in order to reduce the fluctuation of egg prices,comprehensive suggestions were made on the linkages between egg prices and influencing factors,including increasing deep processing of eggs,complementary meat consumption,developing branded eggs,developing agricultural insurance,and strengthening monitoring and early warning.The abnormal fluctuations provide a certain reference for decision makers in the layer industry.