Research On Risk Evaluation Of Logistics Real Estate Projects In Small And Medium-sized Cities

With the rapid development of logistics industry,the logistics and real estate of big cities will be saturated.Small and medium-sized cities will become the next important step for the development of logistics and real estate.However,at present,the development of logistics real estate in small and medium-sized cities is in the initial stage.Few successful projects can be used for reference.A large number of logistics real estate projects have failed to develop investment or low operating efficiency.In this context,the paper studies the risk evaluation of small and medium-sized urban logistics real estate project has important practical significance and theoretical significance.First,the paper introduces the research status of logistics real estate at home and abroad,expounds the elements,characteristics,types and risk characteristics of the logistics real estate,and analyzes the mode of investment,operation mode and profit model of the logistics real estate.Secondly,the paper analyzes the development process and trend of logistics real estate in China,and focuses on the analysis of the development of logistics and real estate in small and medium-sized cities.In the eastern,central and western regions,a typical small and medium-sized city is selected,and the development of logistics real estate is analyzed.Their similarities and differences are compared and analyzed,and the characteristics and key problems of the development of the small and medium-sized cities are attributed to the development of the real estate.On this basis,according to the project life cycle theory,the logistics real estate project is divided into four stages: investment decision stage,construction phase,construction stage and operation management stage.The risk factors affecting the development of logistics real estate are identified and screened,and two first level indexes including internal risk and external risk are constructed,decision-making risk,management risk,technical risk,personnel quality risk,environmental risk,social risk,market economy risk,the risk evaluation index system of the small and medium-sized city logistics real estate project is composed of 7 two level indexes and 33 three grade and 33 three level indicators.Finally,combined with an example,the feasibility of the evaluation model is verified,and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for coping with risks are put forward.The results show that the risk factors of the small and medium-sized urban logistics projects are complex and diverse,and all the risk factors are directly affected by the project process,and all of them will have the effect of "pulling one hair and moving the whole body".The risk factors such as land acquisition,transportation,and regional economic development of internal decision-making risk development scale,operation mode and external social risk have the greatest impact on the project.So,when investing and developing logistics real estate projects in small and medium-sized cities,we should pay attention to both internal and external risks,and take precautions against these key risk indicators ahead of schedule.