Three Margins Of China's Agriculture Products Export Growth To The Countries Along “The Belt And Road”

“The Blet and Road” initiative has brought a great opportunity to China's agricultural trade,especially under the background of the fact that China's agricultural export trade.is impeded from the traditional developed countries frequently and the growth has decelerated.It's a long history since our country has agricultural trade with the countries along “the Blet and Road”,which agricultural products are strongly complementary to ours and has a huge trade potential.With the economic development of the countries along “The Blet and Road”,the cooperation field with our country are broader and the roles those countries play are more important.Since China joined the WTO,the exports of agricultural products to “The Blet and Road”develop rapidly.The value of exports increased from $2.592 billion in 2001 to $15.764 billion in 2015,up 508.15 percent and an average annual growth of 13.76 percent.In order to promote the development of agricultural trade to “the Blet and Road” healthily and sustainably,it is necessary to have a thorough understanding of the growth mode of China's agricultural exports to “the Blet and Road”.With the spring up of The New Trade Theory,it provides a new perspective for us to study the mode of export growth,which believes that a country's export growth mainly depends on intensive marginal growth and extensive marginal growth,which can be decomposed into quantity marginal growth and price marginal growth.If a country's export growth mainly depends on quantity margin,the mode of export growth is fragility and will deteriorate the export trade conditions.However,if a country's export growth mainly depends on the extensive margin or the price margin,the above situation will be avoided.So,which margin dose our country depends on?And when this question is clear,Which factors will affect the trade margins? Those questions are worth to be discussed.In this paper,we firstly make a preliminary understanding of China's agricultural trade to “the Blet and Road”,basing on 6-digit trade data.Then using Three Magins decomposition method to calculate China's agricultural exports into the extensive margin,price margin and quantity margin.Finally,we make a deep analysis of China's agricultural export growth mode through calculating contribution degree,drawing trend diagram and kernel density simulation.The results show that China's agricultural export growth to “The Blet and Road” mainly depends on quantity margin,then extensive margin.Price margin plays a limited role.Then this paper makes analysis of the factors which affect the trade margins through extended gravity model.The results show that the bilateral relative economic scale,fixed trade cost,economic crisis have a significant positive impact on the extensive margin;Income differences,border on China have a significant negative impact on the extensive margin.Variable trade cost,fixed trade cost,economic crisis have a significant negative impact on the quantity margin;Sign a free trade agreement with China has a significant positive negative impact on the quantity margin.The bilateral relative economic scale,income differences have a positive negative impact on the price margin;Border on China,sign a free trade agreement with China have a significant positive impact on the price margin.Finally,the following countermeasures are proposed:Seize the opportunity of “The Blet and Road” initiative and deepen cooperation with the countries along “the Blet and Road”in the agriculture;Upgrade the competitiveness of agricultural export products to change the "low price huge quantity" growth pattern gradually;Optimize the agricultural export products structure to explore new growth areas of trade;Strengthen the pertinence of export strategy.