Analysis Of Guangdong's Clothing Export Trade Potential Under The Background Of The Belt And Road

Guangdong Province is the largest province for clothing exports in China.Whether it is in international or domestic market,Guangdong's clothing export trade has a strong comparative advantage.But in recent years,this comparative advantage is decreasing.The proposal of the “the Belt and Road” strategy in 2013 provided opportunities and challenges for Guangdong's clothing export expansion to more “the Belt and Road” countries and regions.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the potential of clothing export trade in Guangdong Province under the background of “the Belt and Road”.This paper first explores the main macro factors affecting Guangdong's clothing export trade.Then we add variables to the classic trade gravity model to form an extended model,write out the estimation equation,and then uses the equation to study Guangdong's clothing export trade potential of the selected 6 none-Belt-and-Road countries and 7 the Belt and Road countries or regions.Specifically,the article begins with the classic international trade theory,with referring to relevant theses of home and abroad,it completes the literature review.Secondly,we finish the descriptive analysis of clothing export trade from three levels of the world,China and Guangdong Province.And through the revealed comparative advantage index,the trade complementary index of Guangdong Province to the noneBelt-and-Road and the Belt and Road countries or regions is also measured.Then,based on the panel data of the clothing export trade of 13 countries and regions,according to the extended trade gravity model,we first analyze the main macro factors that affect the clothing export trade of Guangdong Province,and use the extended trade gravity model to get the estimation equation through step-by-step regression.Last but not the least,we calculate the potential value of clothing export trade in Guangdong Province for the none-Belt-and-Road countries and the Belt and Road countries or regions.Finally,in the conclusions and suggestions of the article,the main conclusions of the article are summarized and the countermeasures are given.The study found that bilateral GDP,the population of both sides of import and export,geographical distance,exchange rate fluctuations and other factors have a significant impact on apparel export trade.Factors such as bilateral GDP,the number of people on the import side,and the depreciation of the RMB have a positive impact on the flow of clothing exports in Guangdong Province.However,the population of Guangdong Province and bilateral geographical distance will hamper the clothing export trade flow in Guangdong Province.In terms of trade potential,the clothing export to Russia,Japan and Taiwan along the Belt and Road show a considerable trade potential,indicating that the potential of these markets can be explored in depth.With the none-Belt-and-Road countries like United States,South Korea,Canada,and with the Belt and Road countries or regions like EU,Hong Kong and others,all show good trade potential,which means that we still have certain development potential in these markets.However,the trade potential of the clothing trade to ASEAN and the United Arab Emirates is rather small and there is not enough space to develop.