Research On Spatial Statistics Methods Of Coiunty Development Equilibrium

Regional development is a complex system of economic activities,It involves many fields such as economic,social,science and environmennt.The multi-disciplinary intersections result in different research angle have different evaluation methods.With the development of regional research,there are many regional development balancing evaluation methods.It is summarized as ecological method,systematic method,socioeconomic method and other new methods.Due to preference for evaluation a single region,there are two deficiencies in the research methodology:First,mostly static analysis of regional developments,Without further discussion of the dynamic evolution of development equilibrium,In fact,the dynamic law of regional development has great reference value for regional development planning and policy making.Secondly,it neglects the influence of the development status of surrounding counties on the development level of Study area.However,there is often a spatial dependency between data related to geographical location,spatial dependence contradicts the sample independence hypothesis of classical statistical methods,using classical statistical methods to analyze spatial data can lead to deviation of results.For a more complete evaluation of regional development balance,based on the existing research methods,this paper introduces the spatial statistics method,to make up for the lack of spatial correlation in regional development.Spatial statistical methods are divided into global autocorrelation statistical analysis and local spatial statistical analysis.The former sums up the degree of spatial dependence in total space,it can be used to judge whether the county development equilibrium exists the hierarchical distribution characteristics.Reflects the dynamic evolution of county development equilibrium.However,it cannot determine the location of the clusters that have significant effects during the evolution.The latter complements the former,by examining the spatial differences of local areas,base on the test results determine the location of cluster,In three steps:Step one,to judge whether there is significant spatial difference in county development equilibrium by local Moran coefficient.Step two,the spatial agglomeration pattern of county development equilibrium was calculated by G statistic.Step three,the Moran scatter diagram is used to lock the strongly affected cluster location.Finally,taking the data of Jinhua city from 2007 to 2015 as an example,this paper evaluates the spatial correlation of the development equilibrium of Jinhua county.The analysis has led to the following conclusions:First,in time dimension,the level of development equilibrium in each county of Jinhua city has been continuously improved.On the spatial dimension,the development status of all counties except Panan is stable.Except for the lanxi equalizer index less than 1,development is uneven.Second,the statistical analysis of global spatial autocorrelation reveals that the development of equilibrium in Jinhua has significant negative autocorrelation dynamic evolution characteristics.Third,local spatial statistics show that Jinhua Lanxi city and Wuyi county have significant influence on the development of surrounding counties.And in the northern part of Jinhua city,with Lanxi city and Pujiang county as the center,formed a low degree of equilibrium clustering.In the southern part of Jinhua city,a high equilibrium cluster was formed,centered on Dongyang city,Yongkang city and Panan county.