| Land use change is a very complex system,which is manifested in the functional complexity of different land use types.And it is also for the structural complexity between the various types,both of which need to be analyzed from the spatial pattern and time process.The spatial model includes characteristics of simulating complex changes with advantages study on the trends,quantity and spatial changes of land use change.Spatial modeling can effectively reflect the change of land class,especially for dynamic simulation of intricate geographic space system.Spatial modeling shows some advantages in simulating of spatial phenomena with time and space dynamic changes.Therefore,the use of spatial modeling for land use change simulation research has its inherent practicality and rationality and it also can help to solve inappropriate land use planning and land administration.This research takes the whole area of Shenmu city as the research area.The first step is to interpret the remote sensing image of Shenmu City;the second step is to execute the CA-Markov model through IDRISI software to get the land transfer probability and land transfer matrix of Shenmu City.In 2020,the prediction maps have natural development model and sustainable development model;the third step compares the 2015 current situation map and forecast map to analyze the results.Then carries out quantitative analysis and spatial analysis in 2020.Finally,it analyzes the characteristics of land use and land use planning in Shenmu City since 2005.Combining it with the results of land use map data analysis to propose optimized land use planning strategies and their approaches.The results of this research are as follows:(1)The CA-Markov model can combine the advantage of the CA model for simulating the complex geographical system and the advantage of Markov model for simulating the change of number in land use change.It can provide a good model basis for future land use trends.(2)Based on the land transfer matrix and land use index model,the results of land use change analysis in Shenmu City from 2005 to 2015 are as follows: The exchange change and net change of grassland,construction land and traffic land are relatively large.The farmland exchange variable is large and the net change is small.The two changes in the water area are small.(3)The land-use forecast map in 2020 have natural development model and sustainable development model.The comparison of the two results shows.In the natural development mode,the forest grassland and arable land in Shenmu City have been occupied in large quantities.The expansion of construction land is fast.Therefore,it is difficult to continue the principle of basic farmland protection and the ecological environment protection will face the challenge;In the sustainable development model,under the influence of the policy of construction land control areas and basic farmland protection areas,the growth rate of construction land in Shenmu City has slowed down.Arable land and forest and grassland have been protected.Therefore,if the protection can be implemented in a long-term manner,the land-use structure will be more stable and the conflicts between people and land will be alleviated.(4)In order to improve the land use planning of Shenmu City,the following suggestions are made: Continue to strengthen the protection of arable land and basic farmland;vigorously promote intensive use of construction land;strengthen the construction and protection of the ecological environment;improve the quality ofland through land remedian;increase land input-output ratio,reduce the proportion of land that is not occupied;improve land management efficiency through various measures such as innovation,strengthen implementation of land use planning;increase public participation enthusiasm and form a good mechanism system... |
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