Estimation Of The Time Series Of Government Purchase In Modern China (1903~1936)

From the beginning of the 20 th century,China's political situation has been turbulent and its economy has been greatly affected.From the late Qing Dynasty to the early Republican times,the changes in the current situation were inextricably linked with changes in the government and the economy.The relationship between the government and the market Is a long-time global topic.Therefore,this article estimates the government purchase data of the historical period from the late Qing Dynasty to the early Republic of China so as to get a clearer understanding of the economic behavior and economic operation of the government in this historic time period and the economic development trend during the war.For the lack of information on modern economic history,many economic data estimation research began in the late last century,through the efforts of many predecessors have estimated some of the macroeconomic data in recent years,this article in the government to purchase data in this blank area for a preliminary Based on the existing research results and the macroeconomic data of total investment in GDP,total consumption,net exports and the modern direction,this paper adopts the production function suitable for the supply-constrained economy model.Cobb-Douglas The production function(CD function)takes the period from 1903 to 1936 as the time axis,and then combines the data of labor force and fixed capital to estimate and analyze the data purchased by the government of several years in modern China.From the government taxation and price index to the government purchase Factors that make a simple empirical analysis,in general,the government tax and price changes on the impact of government purchases should be FCL,verification analysis as well.This article has made a brief analysis of the government behavior and the economic condition according to the initial history of the late Qing government,the Beiyang government and the Nanjing National Government.The trend of government purchases is decreasing year by year.During the late Qing Dynasty to the Beiyang government,due to huge expenditures on military affairs and indemnities,government purchases were at a high level,tremendous financial deficits and economic gains were fruitless.This was also the result of the demise of the Qing Dynasty and the Northern One of the reasons for the downfall of the government was that in the early Republic of China,the economic recovery was somewhat restored with the improvement of the national strength and the military.There was no huge expenditure on military affairs and indemnities,and government purchases gradually declined.Among them,there may be the opposite of our expectation conclusion.This is because the Chinese economy in the early 20 th century was a "supply-constrained" economy with a steep total supply curve,which meant that over-buying by the government only increased Prices,but can not promote economic growth.