Research On The Relation Between The China's Import&Export Structure And The Industrial Structure(1978-2016)

Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has made remarkable achievements.The trade and industrial pattern have undergone great changes.Foreign trade development has become one of the “troikas” of China's economic growth,and played a crucial role in the stable and sustained growth of China's economy.China's foreign trade structure and industrial structure have been optimized,but there are also certain drawbacks.Under the situation that the mode of economic development and the international environment are changing,adjusting the relationship between the industrial structure and the trade structure to make the foreign trade and the industrial structure form a positive interaction,has become an important issue for the rapid and sustainable development of China's economy.The production structure determines the consumption structure,and the consumption structure reacts to the industrial structure.In terms of trade structure and industrial structure,the industrial structure mainly reflects the status of production structure from the supply level,while the foreign trade structure reflects the consumption structure from the demand level.Therefore,there may be interaction between the foreign trade structure and the industrial structure.In view of this possible interaction between foreign trade structure and industrial structure,this paper first analyzes the evolution of China's import and export commodity structure and industrial structure since the beginning of reform and opening up,and summarizes their respective changing characteristics and trends.Then the conclusion comes out that China's import and export structure and industrial structure have the dislocation development;secondly,based on the import,export,and industrial data from 1978 to 2016,the Granger causality test and OLS regression analysis were adopted between China's foreign trade structure change and industrial structure change.A causal analysis of the relationship shows that there is only a single causal relationship between changes in the structure of import and export trade and changes in the industrial structure.In addition,the industrial structure change has a significant effect on the export structure change,and the effects of the import structure change on the industrial structure change are larger than those in the export structure change.That is to say,since the reform and opening up,China's export trade has had a limited effect on upgrading the domestic industrial structure;and the import trade has a certain driving effect on upgrading of the industrial structure.