Real Expectations,supply-side Structure And Real Estate Market Stability

For a long time,China's real estate market has exhibited a typical one-way ratchet effect: volume and price continued to rise,and there has been no obvious downward trend.In view of this phenomenon,this paper uses behavioral macroeconomic theory to construct a Dynamic General Equilibrium(DGE)model,adding the real expectations of the demand side and the monopoly pricing of the supply side,and firstly demonstrating the role of the two in the real estate market in China from a theoretical perspective.Specifically,this article will use reference point dependence to analyze the behavioral decisions of real estate market participants and explain the role of the reference point for the expected price,instead of treating it as the process of market information transmission under the assumption of rational expectations.On this basis,the conversion from qualitative data to quantitative data will also be achieved through the Carlson-Parkin probability method,in order to grasp the real expectations of market participants,compare the traditional assumptions of rational expectations,and verify the irrationality of market participants.Then we use it as the basis to carry out empirical research to verify the theoretical assumptions.The empirical research is divided into two steps: First,from the short-term perspective,use the city data and panel data for regression analysis to verify that real expectations directly determine the real estate price.Then,starting from the long-term,we use time series data to conduct the VAR model analysis to examine the long-term interaction mechanism between real expectations,monopoly pricing on the supply side,and real estate prices.Combining the two studies,the research proves that the constant increase in expectations and supply-side structural problems are the root causes of the ratchet effect in the real estate market.Based on the research results,the regulation of the real estate market should be coordinated with the supply side and the demand side to integrate the system supply and the anticipation management organically to achieve a stable and healthy development of the real estate market.