Research On Risk Assessment And Control Of Dairy Products Quality Chain

With the improvement of people's living standards,consumption capacity and health awareness,the demand of dairy products is growing.However,the quality and safety problems of dairy products that have frequently emerged in recent years have seriously damaged the interests of consumers,deeply undermined the confidence of consumers,and prompted people to pay more and more attention to the quality and safety of dairy products.Quality risk is the main cause of quality problems in dairy products.The development of quality chain management provides a new perspective for the quality and safety of dairy products.Therefore,this article investigated the quality and safety of dairy products from the perspective of quality chain.The main research contents include the following two aspects.(1)The dairy product quality chain risk was assessed based on Bayesian networks at first.Based on the definition of dairy product quality chain risk concept,the accident causation theory was used to elaborate the formation mechanism of quality risk,and the formation mechanism of quality risk was abstracted into the three processes of input,status and output of the system.A Bayesian network was established for individual quality risk events.In conjunction with the risk transmission characteristics of the dairy product quality chain,the linked individual quality risk Bayesian network was linked into a holistic network form,thereby dairy product quality chain risk chian was established.The strong reasoning ability of Bayesian network was used to assess the risk of dairy product quality chain;meanwhile,in order to further analyze the key quality risk factors,the existing sensitivity calculation method was improved by combining the interval number theory with the interpolation theory.Therefore,the effectiveness of the sensitivity of the risk factors are improved;through the empirical method,the risk assessment of dairy product quality chain and the sensitivity calculation of risk factors were performed by using the methods proposed in this paper,and the feasibility of the method was verified.(2)From the perspective of risk sharing,the risk of dairy product quality chain was controlled.The various constituents of dairy product quality chain form a quality alliance through cooperation,and because of the existence of quality risks,the interests of the quality alliance have certain uncertainties.Based on this deficiency that the existing Shapley value model ignores the risk attitudes among different companies,a risk-avoidance type of risk-sharing mechanism was designed in this paper.The mechanism could achieve quality risk sharing from the perspective of reducing quality risk costs.The purpose of the model is to obtain the proportion of the quality risk cost that each company needs to undertake by solving the model;combining the quality risk factors in each stage of the dairy product quality chain have different impacts on the entire network.This paper resets the weights to share the risks.The newly-added profits under the mechanism are redistributed;in order to further improve the benefits between the alliances to achieve benefit sharing and risk sharing,the paper establishes a model of the quality alliance revenue and enterprise quality cost investment under the risk-sharing mechanism,and solves the risk sharing mechanism through the model.Next,the quality alliance's investment in the quality cost of each company to obtain the best coalition profits;finally,the use of case analysis to verify the feasibility of the proposed method.