Research On The Driving Factors Of International Oil Prices And Their Impacts

Based on the background that the world international crude oil price changes frequently and China faces energy transformation,this paper researches on the factors of oil price.Besides,this paper analyzes heterogeneity influence on macroeconomic and energy system of oil price shock driven by different factors.First of all,through the analysis of the existing research,this paper synthesizes two models,the competitive market model and the specific behavior model so we form a unified theoretical analysis framework.Secondly,based on this analysis framework,by using structural vector autoregression(SVAR)method,this paper decomposed oil price shock into several factors,including oil prices anticipation shock,basic supply shocks,motor supply shocks,preventive demand shock,real economic demand shocks and speculative demand.Thirdly,this paper uses panel data from 1999 to 2016 and dynamic panel of generalized moment estimation(GMM),to estimate the response of macroeconomic and energy system,and analysis of macro economy and energy system to different sources of oil shocks.In addition,the article also analyzes the heterogeneity effects of different groups.Based on decomposition of oil price,oil price anticipation and speculative demand are two significant factors which influence oil price since 2000.In addition,supply factors are not significant.By analyzing the impact of different sources of oil shocks on the macro-economy and energy system,this paper finds that the influence of oil price shock driven by supply and demand factors are totally different.Higher oil prices caused by supply factors will restrain aggregate output,but higher oil prices caused by rising demand has positive effect on output.CPI responds only to the impact of the oil price caused by the demand.The impact of oil price on industrial output is not obvious.The responses of energy intensity and carbon intensity to oil price shocks from different sources are the same.The increase in oil price significantly reduces energy intensity and carbon intensity.While the response of energy structure is different.In details,higher oil prices caused by supply can improve energy structure,but the higher oil prices caused by demand level will finally worsen the energy structure because it will lead to the substitution effect and aggregate demand expansion effect at the same time.In addition,through the analysis of heterogeneity,change of energy intensity and carbon intensity in developed countries mainly comes from the change of oil price caused by supply side,while emerging economies are mainly affected by the changes of oil prices caused by demand side.However,energy structure of developed countries is hardly affected by the impact of oil price.But emerging market countries are affected by oil price caused by both supply and demand factor.