Residential Energy Consumption And Its Indirect Rebound Effect In China

Since the reform and opening up,China’s total energy use has grown rapidly.During the time of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”,the goal of “energy conservation andemission reduction” was proposed:by 2010,China’s energy consumption per unit of GDP would be reduced by 20% compared with 2005,and the discharge of major pollutants decreased by 10%.Since the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction policy,China’s energy consumption per unit of GDP has continued to decline.China’s energy intensity in 2019 was 0.55,a decrease of 60.7% from 2005,the total energy consumption reached 4.875 billion tons of standard coal,an increase of86.5% over 2005.Current studies have found that the existence ofthe rebound effect will offset some or all of the energy savings brought about by energy efficiency the improvement,China’s total energy use has been growing at a rapid rate.China’s energy efficiency has improved.Since the implementation of the energy conservation and emissions reduction policy,energy intensity has been declining,but the overall energy consumption has been increasing year by year,a large part of the reason may be the existence of energy rebound effect.Most of the previous studies focused on the rebound effect analysis of the industrial sector,but few studies on the residential sector in China.This paper first analyzes the definition and mechanism of the rebound effect,which lays a foundation for the research of the rebound effect.Subsequently,the consumption volume and indirect energy consumption of Chinese residents were calculated respectively,and the consumption structure and changing trend were analyzed.It was found that indirect energy consumption occupied more than two-thirds of residents’ complete energy consumption,and directly returned to China to return directly to China.This is a rich study of the bomb effect,far outpacing research on China’s indirect rebound effect.Consequently,in combination with the input-output model,the focus of this paper is on analyzing the indirect rebound effect of China’s residential consumption of coal,gasoline,natural gas,and electricity from 2002 to 2017,and discusses the difference and changing pattern of the indirect rebound effect under the different methods of distribution.This article also compares the different indirect rebound effects of urban and rural residents’ energy consumption,and analyzes the focus of its internal reasons and future energy conservation and emission reduction.Then,this paper conducts a sensitivity analysis on the indirect rebound effect under different distribution scenarios based on the change of the direct rebound effect value.Finally came to the following conclusions:(1)From 2000 to 2019,the total total energy consumption of Chinese residents gradually increased.In general,the residential energy consumption was mainly indirect energy consumption,accounting for up to 80%.This is because the form of direct energy consumption is relatively single,mainly used for lighting and other life activities,but indirect energy consumption covers most of the industries related to residential consumption activities,and the production activities of related industries bring a lot of energy consumption,making the indirect energy consumption of residents much higher than the direct energy consumption.In terms of consumption structure,the evolution of residents’ direct energy consumption and indirect energy consumption structure is almost the same,from a single coal to electricity,natural gas,gasoline,coal multiple energy.In terms of the overall trend,whether it is direct energy consumption or indirect energy consumption,the proportion of electricity continues to rise,while the proportion of coal continues to decline.Among them,the proportion of direct consumption of gasoline increases,and the proportion of indirect consumption decreases slightly.It is worth mentioning that with the construction and improvement of natural gas pipelines,natural gas consumption will continue to grow,and residential energy consumption will show a trend of "Low-carbon" and "Clean" in the future.(2)From eight consumption activities,living and traffic communication accounts for the proportion of residents’ indirect energy consumption increasing,food,education,culture and service of indirect energy consumption is on the decline,clothing,medical care,household equipment supplies and services,and other goods and services account for a relatively stable and accounted for more than low,four spending indirect energy consumption accounted for less than 20%.On the one hand,it is because of the related industries(such as the production and supply of electricity,heat,gas and water)involved in residential and transportation activities;Transportation,storage and postal services)are energy-intensive industries,so energy consumption is high;Similarly,clothing,medical care,household equipment supplies and services,and other goods and services accounted for a relatively low proportion;China,on the other hand,has built a moderately prosperous society in every direction,and the residents’ demand for food tends to be saturated with it,so the proportion has decreased.Education and cultural activities are affected by the development of the network,and paper industry,printing industry and other industries are affected,and the proportion has also decreased.(3)Indirect energy use by Chinese urban and rural residents is primarily residential,and the indirect energy consumption of clothing,medical care and household daily necessities is relatively low.By comparing the urban-rural differences in residents’ indirect energy consumption,it is found that education,culture and services are second in the proportion of indirect energy use by urban dwellers,while food expenditure occupies the second place in the proportion of indirect energy consumption of rural residents.In addition,the indirect energy consumption of urban residents is growing rapidly,and its proportion in the national indirect energy consumption is also rising rapidly.In 2000,the indirect energy consumption of urban residents was only150% of that of rural residents,but by 2019,the indirect energy consumption of urban residents had reached more than 300% of that of rural residents.(4)There is an indirect rebound effect in residential electricity,coal,gasoline and natural gas consumption.Under the income elasticity scenario and proportional expenditure scenario,the indirect rebound effect of residential electricity consumption is the highest,followed by coal,and the indirect rebound value of the two reaches10.57% from 2002 to 2017.The indirect rebound effect is lower for gasoline and natural gas consumption,averaging around 2% and 1%,respectively.Through the comparison between urban and rural areas,it is found that the indirect rebound effects of urban and rural residents on coal,gasoline,natural gas and electricity are almost equal under the proportional expenditure scenario.(5)With the increase of the direct rebound effect,the value of the indirect rebound effect of residential energy consumption under the four distribution methods decreases continuously.Spending and the percentage of income elasticity,the best scenario(after save all the money allocated to the correlation coefficient of the smallest industry sectors)under the indirect effect of small and stable,the worst scenario(after save all the money allocated to the correlation coefficient of the largest industrial sectors)residents of the indirect effect is the largest,is three times more than three other scenarios.