Research On Risk Identification And Evaluation Of Bidding Price For Prefabricated Construction Projects

Prefabricated building refers to a kind of building form which is assembled by prefabricated components at the construction site,which has the advantages of saving resources,protecting the environment,and high assembly efficiency compared with the general buildings,so it has been developed rapidly.Due to the characteristics of the form of prefabricated building construction,there are great differences between the construction process and the construction method of the general building,at the same time,due to the short development time of the prefabricated building in China,compared with the general building,China's prefabricated building,the supporting policy system,technical method system,standards and normative system are not mature enough.For example,there are no partial list items in the inventory project involving assembly construction projects,so when bidding offers are made,they are faced with problems where the inventory items are not applicable,and so on.Various reasons cause construction enterprises to face different risks from ordinary buildings when bidding and quoting for assembled construction projects,so they cannot copy the risk of bidding for general construction projects.Therefore,for the assembly building project,how to scientifically identify the risk factors and establish a scientific evaluation model of the bidding price,so as to improve the winning and profitable level of the construction enterprises,is an important issue facing the construction enterprises at present.In view of this,this paper is based on the perspective of construction enterprises,based on the theory and method of prefabricated building bidding management and risk management,starting from the analysis of the concept of bidding quotation risk,and then the sources and factors of the bidding quotation risk of the prefabricated building project,the evaluation model and method are carried out to provide reference and technical support for the bidding and quotation decision of construction enterprises.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:Firstly,on the basis of clarifying the purpose of bidding,the concept of bidding quotation risk of prefabricated building projects is scientifically defined.The goal of the bid quotation is to win the bid and achieve the profit,and according to the definition of risk in the International standard IS031000 2018 Risk Management Guide,the definition of the bidding quotation risk of the prefabricated building project is given.Secondly,the system recognizes the bidding quotation risk of the prefabricated building project.The literature analysis method,expert consultation method and questionnaire method are used to identify and select the bidding quotation risk of the prefabricated building project,and analyzes that the risk of bidding and quotation of assembled buildings comes from three aspects,such as bidding enterprises,projects and environment,mainly involving 14 risk factors,such as the financial strength of bidders,the experience of assembly management of bidders,the saturation of bidding parties.Thirdly,a risk evaluation model for bidding and quotation of prefabricated building projects was established.On the basis of the risk identification of the bidding quotation of the prefabricated building project,the risk evaluation index system of the bidding quotation of the prefabricated building project is established,and the risk evaluation model is established by using the AHP-entropy weight method and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Fourthly,the effectiveness of the model is verified by practical cases.Using the established risk evaluation model and risk evaluation through examples.The results of the case analysis show that the primary indicator project factor has the largest weight,followed by the bidding enterprise factor,and finally the environmental factor,which is in line with the current construction of the prefabricated construction project.The innovations of this paper are as follows:Firstly,the definition of bidding risk.Since the emergence of the word risk,different scholars have defined different risks and analyzed existing literature.Most of them define the bidding quotation risk from the possibility of risk occurrence and the uncertainty of loss.There are very few literatures from the impact of uncertainty on the target to define the risk of bid quotation.This paper gives the definition of the bidding quotation risk by analyzing the bidding quotation target.Secondly,the risk evaluation index system of the bidding quotation of the prefabricated building project is established,and the method of risk evaluation of the bidding quotation of the prefabricated building project is given.The risk evaluation model of the bidding quotation of the prefabricated building project was established,and a prefabricated building project was taken as an example to analyze the risk.Based on the evaluation results,the bidding quotation decision and risk response suggestion based on risk analysis were proposed to verify the practicability of the research results.In summary,this paper considers and explores the key issue of the bidding quotation risk of the prefabricated building project from the perspective of the construction enterprise,and combines the theoretical method with the practical engineering to provide reference and technical support for the construction enterprise to control the bidding quotation risk of the prefabricated construction project.