Research On The Mechanism Of Industrial Transformation And Upgrading Based On System Dynamics

China's economic steps into the “new normal” phase and economic development is facing double pressure from inside and outside.The downward pressure on economy is increasing and the development environment has also undergone a fundamental change,the rapid development of China's economy is hard to continue.At present,vigorously promoting industrial transformation and upgrading is an important measure to solve the problem of China's economic development.Industrial transformation and upgrading is affected by a variety of factors.It is necessary to analyze the impact mechanism of industrial transformation and upgrading in order to better promote the industrial transformation and upgrading and provide reference for government departments to adjust the industrial structure and promote economic development.This paper establishes a model of industrial transformation and upgrading based on system dynamics,and explores the mechanism between each factor and industrial transformation and upgrading.Firstly,on the basis of reviewing the relevant theories of industrial transformation and upgrading,this paper gives the concept of industrial transformation and upgrading.According to the research results of domestic and foreign scholars,this paper summarizes the main factors affecting the industrial transformation and upgrading.Secondly,on the basis of clarifying the goal of industrial transformation and upgrading,this paper establishes a model of industrial transformation and upgrading based on system dynamics.Theory and practice suggested that only in the way of vigorously promoting scientific and technological innovation,improve the cultural quality of workers and labor skills,improve the labor productivity of the three industries can we promote economic growth and industrial transformation and upgrading fundamentally.Therefore,when constructing the system dynamics model of the mechanism of industrial transformation and upgrading,this paper starts from the perspective of improving the labor productivity of the three industries,and selects the three major industrial output and gross domestic product as the key elements.Science and technology and education are the fundamental driving forces to promote economic development,and they also play a key role in the industrial transformation and upgrading.Therefore,when building the model we focus on the role of science and technology and education.On the basis of clarifying the purpose of modeling and clarifying the system boundary,analyzing the mechanism of the interaction between the elements of the system and drawing system causality diagrams and system flow diagrams.This paper takes Shandong Province as an example and uses the data of social economic development of Shandong Province in 2000-2015 to construct the quantitative relation between the variables in the model,establish system equations.After the validity test and sensitivity test,this model is used to simulate the economic development and industrial transformation and upgrading of Shandong Province from 2016 to 2020.Finally,this paper uses the “policy laboratory” function of the system dynamics simulation software,adjusting the input of the influencing factors and observing the corresponding changes of the system behavior under various assumptions.The results show that increasing research investment and education expenditure and guiding the transfer of rural surplus labor can effectively promote economic growth and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of industry.The increase of enterprise scientific research investment is more obvious to the industrial transformation and upgrading.Among the three industries,the impact of scientific research expenditure on the third industry is the most obvious.The increase of education expenditure has a significant effect on the second industry.When the labor force is transferred from the primary industry to the second industry and the third industry can improve the total labor productivity,and the change of the observed variables in the system also shows that the transfer of labor is not only beneficial to the economic growth but also conducive to industrial structure optimization.In addition,the study also found that speeding up the transformation of scientific research achievements into practical productive forces,increasing the scale of financial expenditure,improving the investment in advanced technology and equipment in the development process of three major industrial can effectively accelerate economic growth and promote the industrial transformation and upgrading.At last,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations combined with the research conclusions and in view of the problems in the process of promoting the transformation and upgrading of Shandong Province.