The Study Of Interactive Relationship Between Urbanization And Industrial Transformation In Shandong Province

Based on the theory of urbanization and industrial economy, urbanization and industrial transformation and upgrading have a close correlation. Analyzing Shandong Province and even the country’s urbanization and industrial development, we can find some problems and uncoordinated place. Under the "new normal" situation of economic development, our government urgently need to enhance coordinated development of urbanization and industrial transformation and upgrading to excavate a new impetus of economic growth. Therefore, there are theoretical significance and policy guidance to quantitative analysis of the interaction between urbanization and industrial transformation and upgrading.In order to quantitatively investigate and determine the interactions between urbanization and industrial development, firstly this article construct the conceptual model of interactive relationship between urbanization and industrial transformation as the basic framework for the research article; On the basis of setting up the Ind icator System of urbanization and industrial development and estimating related development Index(including urbanization level, urbanization quality, economic level, industry structure, economic benefit, two types of development), we use SVAR model to quantitative analysis the relationship of the current and lag period of each development index between the two; Granger causality test is more intuitive mining causal relationship between the various development index; Systematically analysis internal relations of structure, function and behavior in the system of urbanization and industrial development, this article construct a system dynamics model that system elements(urbanization, industrial development, agricultural modernization, educational development, technology development, social needs) interact, and assume the value of the main indicators(GDP growth rate of 7%, R & D investment growth rate of 13.68%, urban construction land growth rate of 2.09%)of future economic growth to predict 2015-2020 main index value of urbanization and industrial development; Based on the empirical results and learn from the coordinated development path of urbanization and industrial transformation and upgrading at home and abroad, this article propose effective policy recommendations.Theoretical models and analytical methods presented in this paper is complementary to urbanization and industrial development of the theory, and also provides methods and technical support for the relevant empirical research; the information of Shandong Province’s urbanization and industrial transformation and upgrading obtained through empirical analysis provide a theoretical basis for the proposed policy.