| The relationship between transfer of rural labor and industrial structure change is mutual promotion and mutual restrain.Under China is present in the critical period of economic transition and economic development has entered a "new normal",the extensive economic growth mode has been unable to meet the economic sustainable development facing the dual constraints of resources and environment.The transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure is urgent task that our country faces at present.At the beginning of 2011 "shortage of migrant workers" appeared again which remind us that rural labor transfer began to appear new characteristics and trends in our country,the new generation of migrant workers are gradually replacing the older generation of migrant workers and becoming the subject of the transfer of rural surplus labor force.Under the circumstances of our country's innovation ability is still insufficient,it is necessary to give full play to the promotion of the transfer of rural surplus labor force to the upgrading of the industrial structure.On the basis of analyzing the current situation of rural labor transfer,this paper discovers that there is still a certain amount surplus labor in rural China.And in the background of current China's industrial restructuring and upgrading,to promote the transfer of rural labor is conducive to promoting China's industrial structure upgrading;and successfully upgrading of industrial structure also need the support of rural labor transfer.Although the transfer of rural labor to the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure is not the fundamental driving force,neglect of rural labor transfer on industrial restructuring and upgrading will first lead to incomplete understanding of the upgrading of industrial structure and followed un-expected interference during the process of upgrading of industrial structure.Therefore,this paper analyzes the mechanism of rural labor transfer to promote industrial upgrading in detail,first income-demand mechanism,which points that the transfer of rural labor can promote the improve of the income level of urban and rural residents jointly,causing the upgrade of consumption structure,and then pull the upgrading of the production structure;secondly cost induced mechanism,which points that labor transfer will gradually improve the labor costs,thus enabling enterprises to increase capital and technical and other input factors and lower labor input,and that the industrial structure upgrading from labor-intensive to capital-intensive and technology type direction;thirdly human capital supporting mechanism,which points that the transfer of rural labor force activity itself can promote human capital level,and this is greatly neglected in the past study,besides,the transfer of rural labor force can bring human capital agglomeration effect,which will promote industrial agglomeration and economic growth of human capital agglomeration areas,so as to make human capital support for the industrial structure upgrading;Fourthly division of work refinement mechanism,which points that the transfer of rural labor will bring market size and economies of scale expanding,can lead to social division of labor refinement,new industries can make some independent from the original internal activities so as to promote industrial structure upgrading.In the theory research of the transfer of labor force promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure,based on the analysis framework of Harris-Todaro labor transfer this paper establishes a general equilibrium model and the uses comparative static analysis method to study the government development policies and economic growth effect for the transfer of labor force and the upgrading of the industrial structure.It was found that the transfer of rural labor force is under Harris-Todaro patter,the government wage subsidies to the city intermediate goods sector and to the urban industrial sector using intermediate inputs,and price subsidize to the intermediate product can promote rural labor force flowing to the two city sectors,and thus promote the city intermediate products department and the urban industrial sector growth,and ultimately promote the upgrading of industrial structure.In addition,the capital accumulation of the intermediate product sector and the capital accumulation of the urban industrial sector also promote the industrial structure.But wage subsidies to rural traditional agricultural sector will produce certain negative effect on industrial structure upgrading.And just increase of labor endowment has no impact on the production of two city sectors and new additions of the labor force can only precipitate in the traditional agricultural sector or become a member of the unemployment in city.The results of the theoretical analysis provide some reference and theoretical basis for the government to develop a suitable industrial structure upgrade policy.In the empirical analysis of rural labor force transfer to the upgrading of the industrial structure,this paper constructed a more reasonable integrated model for measuring the level of the industrial structure,and measured the level of industrial structure of China during the period from 1978 to 2014,finding that the level of China's industrial structure is in the continuous improvement process after the reform and opening up but can be divided into two distinct stages one from 1978 to 2000 and another one from 2001 to nowadays,during the period from 1978 to 2000,changes in the level of industrial structure is relatively flat,and 2001 later,the level of industrial structure improve very fast.Besides,it is also found that the growth rate of the level of China's industrial structure is in drastic changes.On the basis of measuring the level of China industrial structure in the past years,the backward stepwise regression method is used to determine the eventually variables entered the regression equation are the transfer of rural labor force,foreign direct investment and R&D investment,and the transfer of rural labor force is the biggest impact on the upgrading of the industrial structure,followed is foreign direct investment,R&D investment is the smallest.According to the measurement equation is finally obtained,the specific size for each variable is:the agricultural labor force accounted for the proportion of the employment of a percentage point decline caused by rural labor force transfer,will bring the level of industrial structure up 1.998 percentage points,foreign direct investment(FDI)a percentage point increase will bring the level of industrial structure rise 0.448%;R&D investment for each additional one percentage point,will bring the industrial structure level rise 0.2912 percentage points.in the critical period of economic transformation and economic development under the new normal,in order to promote the transfer of rural surplus labor force better,and effectively play its role in promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure,this paper suggests that the government should enhance rural labor force training efforts to transfer the ordinary labor into high-quality technology labor force,so that China can coordinate with innovation ability to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure. |
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