The Research On Potential Trade Between China And Countries Along The Silk Road Economic Belt

In 2013,China put forward the new national strategy of building the "Silk Road Economic Belt",which is an important conception for China's economic development and foreign affairs.Under the guidance of the "Silk Road Economic Belt" strategy,China is committed to creating new global economic cooperation platform,and "unimpeded policy,linked roads,unblocked trade,circulated currency and connected popular sentiments" is taken as the future cooperation direction.Trade is the basic power on enhancing the level of connectivity in a region,so it appears crucial to achieve unblocked trade between China and countries along the economic belt.In this paper,firstly the data of bilateral trade between China and 49 countries along the economic belt within the time range of 2006 to 2015 is used to analyze the current situations of trade in these countries,to learn the tendency and structure of the bilateral trade.Secondly,this paper will analysis the bilateral trade complementarity in three ways:using the trade integration index and respectively from two angles of import and export to analyze the trade close degree between China and the 49 countries;based on the general criteria of HS code classification,the said data is divided into 22 categories,the revealed comparative advantage indexes of the 49 countries are calculated and the trade complementarities between China and the 49 countries are preliminarily judged;comprehensive trade complementarity index is used to measure the trade complementarity between China and the 49 countries respectively from two angles of export and import.Thirdly,based on the extended gravity model,the index of bilateral trade between China and the 49 countries is obtained and the bilateral trade potential is determined.Finally,based on the results of the previous analysis,the methods and means to achieve unblocked trade between China and the 49 countries are studied in this paper,which has provided a feasible train of thought for the connectivity within a region.Studies show that the scale of import and export trade between China and countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt is enlarging year by year,and regions along the belt have distinctive features and structure of trade.However,the trade combined degree between China and countries in key areas and radiating areas along the belt is not high,and further development is needed for the bilateral trade.A favorable trade complementarity exists between China and most countries along the belt.In addition,based on the regression results gotten by the gravity model,the trade potential indexes between China and all countries along the belt are calculated to be within the range of 0.8to 1.2,indicating that the trade between China and any of the countries along the belt belongs to pioneering trade and there's a large development space for the trade.Therefore,it can be inferred by summarizing the results of research on current situations,complementarities and trade potentials of China and countries along the belt that,the trade potential between China and countries along the belt is great.In order to fully exploit the potential of trade between China and countries along the belt,under the background of strategic construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt,China should further optimize the bilateral trade structure,expand the bilateral economic and trade relations,strengthen intergovernmental cooperation and create a good environment for bilateral trade.