Study On The Trade Potential Between China And Countries Along The Silk Road Economic Belt

China officially proposed the “Belt and Road” initiative in 2013.The “Belt and Road” initiative includes the “Silk Road Economic Belt” strategy and the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” strategy.The “Silk Road Economic Belt” strategy is one of the important components of the “Belt and Road” initiative.It reflects the new development of China's opening up to the outside world in the future.At the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,with the “Belt and Road” strategy written into the party constitution,the importance of promoting the strategic development of the "Silk Road Economic Belt" is also increasing.Developing economic and trade relations between countries along the economic belt and China is the basis and way to promote this strategy.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the trade potential,trade efficiency and influencing factors of trade inefficiency between the countries along the silk-road economic belt and China.This study studied the export potential and export efficiency of China and the countries along the Silk Road by constructing a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model,and analyzed the influencing factors that lead to trade inefficiency,and on this basis,proposed relevant policy recommendations for promoting the construction and development of the Silk Road Economic Belt strategic.This paper mainly studies China's export trade,so in this paper,the trade potential means the export potential and the trade efficiency means the export efficiency.Trade potential is theoretically the maximum possible value of trade,i.e.the frontier level of trade volume,and trade efficiency is the degree of realization of trade potential.Based on the research background and research ideas,this study first summarized the trade situation between China and the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt,and provided a certain reference background for the research.Then,this study constructed an analytical model to explore the factors affecting the actual trade volume,export potential and export efficiency between China and countries along the silk-road economic belt.From the perspective of quantitative analysis,the trade potential,trade efficiency and the changes of them were given.The regression results of the model indicated that the determinants of trade potential are the GDP of the importing country and the geographical distance between the importing country and China,while the impact of China's GDP is not significant.Studies of trade inefficiency have shown that Having a common border with China,good infrastructure,and lower tariff levels can significantly reduce trade inefficiencies and thus promote export growth.Finally,this study has calculated the export potential and export efficiency according to the model,the results showed that China's trade potential with most of the countries along the silk-road economic belt has increased to a certain extent.Besides,the average of China's export efficiency to countries along the silk-road economic belt is between 0.22 and 0.81.The data of trade potential and efficiency indicated that China still has a large room to expand export.Based on the above research results,this paper proposed strategies to promote China's export to foreign countries in four aspects: Adhering to the principle of mutual benefit and win-win,strengthen national cooperation;Accelerate industrial upgrading and support advantageous industries;Actively promote inter-country tariff reduction;Improve the level of national infrastructure construction along the Silk Road Economic Belt;Focus on trade cooperation with countries with lower trade efficiency and bigger trade potential.