The Impaction Of RCEP On Global Agricultural Production,Trade And Welfare Effects

Since twenty-first Century,WTO and other multilateral negotiations due to agricultural subsidies,agricultural tariffs have not reached consensus,the global multilateral trade process blocked.In order to change the state of trade,many countries have turned to flexible bilateral free trade and regional free trade.Therefore,Asian countries call for the establishment of RCEP increasingly strong voice.In this paper,with the help of the Regional Com-prehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)framework,using the method of mathematical analysis and empirical research,analysis of the impact of reduction of tariffs on global agricultural production,trade and economic welfare effect.First of all,this paper reviews the domestic and foreign literature from three aspects: the restriction factors of RCEP negotiation,the impact of RCEP on China's strategy and the empirical study of the economic effect of RCEP;Secondly,this paper introduces the main content and development of RCEP,It also makes a detailed statistical analysis of the trade of agricultural products in the world's major agricultural products trade countries in 2015year;Next,This paper analyzes the economic impact of free trade agreements from the overall perspective and the basic assumptions of the GSIM model,and collects the production,trade flows and tariff data of the major countries in the world in 2015,the elasticity of supply,demand elasticity and substitution elasticity of agricultural products are calculated,the effects of RCEP on global agriculturalproduction,trade and welfare effects are predicted by a computable partial equilibrium model(GSIM model);Finally,according to the previous mathematical analysis,combined with the empirical results,we give some policy recommendations to promote the development of global agricultural products.In this paper,the empirical results show that the realization of zero tariff in the RCEP region has positive effects on the production of agricultural products in New Zealand and Australia,but there is a negative effect on the production of agricultural products in other RCEP member countries;There is a significant positive effect on the trade scale and consumer welfare of agricultural products in member countries.It is worth noting that this positive change effect is closely related to the degree of openness of the agricultural trade countries in the region.The change in tariffs has stimulated the export of agricultural products in the RCEP region,creating a trade-creating effect.For Australia,New Zealand and China,this promotion is also very obvious.In particular,the trade of agricultural products between member countries has replaced the trade of agricultural products between some member countries and non member countries(Russia,the European Union,the United States and Canada),which leads to the trade diversion effect.In the long term,Japan,South Korea,India and ASEAN countries have a lot of growth for producer surplus,Non member state will lose the main export market for agricultural products.All in all,New Zealand andAustralia,which have a high degree of openness to the agricultural market,are the largest beneficiaries.The Chinese should also make full use of this opportunity to actively promote the RCEP negotiations,reduce the RCEP area of Agricultural Products Tariff.On the one hand,it is conducive to maximize the overall economic benefits of regional fta,on the other hand,it is also beneficial to China with the help of external forces to optimize the agricultural resource allocation,accelerate the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure.