Research On The Prices And Space-time Spillovers Mechanism In Commodity Housing Of Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration

In recent years,the interaction of urban commercial housing market becomes outstanding day by day.The fluctuation of housing price has been the focus issue of all sectors of society and studies to overflow effect of commercial housing price are increasing.During this,we notice that in the area megalopolis,commercial housing price fluctuation of core city would affect that in surrounding cities.In addition,with the advancement of urban cluster development,such effect would gradually increase.The commercial housing price data of two core cities,Chengdu and Chongqing in Chengyu urban agglomeration,and another 11 main surrounding cities are selected as the study sample.Based on the double dimensions of time and space,it studies the overflow effect of commercial housing price in each city,testing the spatial effect by Moran's I index and further studying it by establishing spatial econometric model to combine with the generalized impulse response function from the aspect of area megalopolis.It finds that the 13 cities in Chengyu urban agglomeration have obvious spatial correlation in commercial housing price,with overflow effect.Chengdu and Chongqing,the core cities,are with great significance to the overflow process.In short time,commercial housing price in Chengdu would have alternative promoting and inhibiting effect to that in Chongqing,Deyang,Suining and Mianyang.From long term,it has obvious promoting effect to Chongqing,Deyang,Suining,Nanchong and Zigong,inhibiting effect to Mianyang,Meishan and Guang'an.In short time,commercial housing price in Chongqing would have alternative promoting and inhibiting effect to that in Deyang,Nanchong,Neijiang and Ziyang.From long term,it has obvious promoting effect to Chengdu,Dazhou,Guang'an and Mianyang,inhibiting effect toMeishan,Leshan and Suining.The prices of commercial housing in the core cities of Chengdu and Chongqing will lead to the fluctuation of housing prices in other cities and cities,and the influence of the core cities is relatively large.In the short term,there is a significant difference between the cities that are close to the core cities Of the spillover effect,in the long run on the distant city will have a significant spillover effect,causing changes in housing prices.Cities in Chengyu urban agglomeration are centered in space,with high economic developing relevancy.It makes the commercial housing price affecting each other.With the increase of spatial relevancy,the commercial housing price in the core cities would systematically affect that in the main surrounding cities.By this study,it hopes to systematically describe the overflow mechanism of commercial housing price in cities of Chengyu urban agglomeration,enrich the research contents of fluctuation price theory in real estate and provide theoretical basis and policy suggestions for the central and local governments to analyze the trend of housing market price development and macroscopically control the stable development of real estate market.