Research On The Impact Of Export On The Over-capacity Problem In Chinese Manufacturing Industry

Since the beginning of the new century,the problem of over-capacity has been restricting and hindering the healthy development of Chinese macro economy,especially for manufacturing.It is a very meaningful and urgent problem to understand,analyze and solve the problem of over-capacity,whether from the macro perspective of the state and industry,or at the micro angle of the enterprise.From the government work report in 1999 to several State Council documents published by the state in recent years,the problem of over-capacity in many industries in China has been emphasized and many methods and measures have been set up to deal with the problem of over-capacity.But the problem of over-capacity has never really been cured.What's more worrying is that many industries in Chinese manufacturing industry are highly dependent on foreign trade,so their output and earnings are greatly influenced by international demand and market changes.When the international economic environment is in recession or depression,the demand of the international market is slump.These industries which rely on export-driven are prone to loss and even collapse,as well as the problem of over-capacity,because of the decrease in demand and the increase in inventory.Based on the above objective fact needs,this paper makes a study of the impact of export trade on the over-capacity problem in Chinese manufacturing industry,and tries to put forward some countermeasures and suggestions to solve the problem of over-capacity from the perspective of foreign trade.In this paper,we calculate the over-capacity index of 26 industries in Chinese manufacturing industry by using the boundary function production method.Then use WIOD into non competitive 2000-2014 Chinese output database input-output model to calculate and analyze the export contribution to Chinese output.We also calculate the export contribution rate of all the industries output.Finally,we take the export growth rate as the core explanatory variable,the over-capacity index as the explanatory variable,and the export dependence degree as the adjustment variable,the capital factor and a series of industry characteristics as the control variable.Through the above analysis,this paper discusses the effect of export trade on the over-capacity of our manufacturing industry from the perspective of foreign trade,and puts forward some suggestions to solve the problem of over-capacity in Chinese manufacturing industry from the perspective of foreign trade.The analysis shows that the contribution rate of Chinese manufacturing industry to the industry output is much greater than that of the import sector.Several industries with the lowest contribution rate to their industry output from 2000 to 2014 are just the ones with the lowest average productivity utilization and the highest over-capacity index.It shows that the industry that is committed to the domestic consumer market is more serious.The growth of the export trade has a significant impact on the problem of over-capacity in the manufacturing industry.When export growth slows down,the over-capacity index is rising,the problem of overcapacity is aggravated;when export growth accelerates,the over-capacity index decreases,and the problem of overcapacity can be alleviated.The industry with high export dependence and low export growth will cause greater possibility of over-capacity in the industry.