A Study On The Relationship Between The Price Of Grain And The Price Of Pork In Ji'nan

Pork occupies an absolute leading position in China's meat consumption structure,which makes pig farming also play a leading role in livestock and poultry breeding structure in China.But the huge and stable market demand has not kept the price of pork stable.Since the opening of pork market,the cyclical fluctuation of pork prices has not stopped.In recent years,this fluctuation is more frequent,showing a trend of shorter cycle and larger amplitude.Frequent fluctuations have affected the healthy development of pig breeding industry,destroyed the stability of pork market supply,and made bad effects on the daily consumption and price level statistics of Chinese residents.When the pork price fluctuates obviously,the government has taken some control measures,but the effect was not ideal.Establishing an analytical model and finding a reasonable price expectation based on the current factors will become a top priority.Starting from the main cost factors that constitute the pork price,we choose the factors that affect frequently and directly affect them.We take the monthly price of corn,soybean,wheat and piglets in Ji'nan from 2002 to 2017 as samples to make an empirical analysis.On the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis,the policy suggestions on how to stabilize the supply of pork market and reduce the fluctuation of pork price are put forward.The research shows that:(1)the price of pork in Ji'nan has been fluctuating,and this kind of fluctuation has a certain periodicity.(2)the price of the main grain varieties made of pig feed also showed a cyclical change.(3)corn and soybean themselves or products as a main component of pig feed,their price has a significant linear regression relationship with pork price,and is positively correlated.(4)The fluctuation of supply is the main factor affecting the stability of pork price.Control measures introduced by the government should stabilize the pork market supply to: by promoting scientific farming,large-scale farming to improve management level and the ability to avoid risks;the establishment of early warning mechanism and the release of guide information can help the farmers to make a prejudgement,to prevent the emergence of a vicious circle;By means of insurance,reserve,etc,reduce industry losses and reduce volatility when prices fluctuate.