The Research On The Early-Warning Of Pork Price Fluctuation In China

China is not only the world's number one pork producer but also the largest pork consumer.At the same time,pork is both an important animal product and the main meat non-staple food in the "vegetable basket" of urban and rural residents in China.The eighties of last century,our country reformed the pork market and abandoned the previous behavior of the unified purchase and sale of pork.Since then,the pork price began to be freely adjusted by the market,it sometimes appeared all the way "soaring" and sometimes occurred sustained "plunged" phenomenon.The violent fluctuation of pork price not only affected China's economic development but also increased the market risk of producers and even caused consumer fears.It can be said that the phenomenon of frequent and significant fluctuation in pork price has become an important issue related to China's economy and people's livelihood.All along,many experts and scholars in China have been exploring how to reduce the negative impact of abnormal fluctuation in pork price.In regard to the question that there is a large market uncertainty of abnormal fluctuation in the price of pork,it is an popular and effective precautionary measure to master the basic fluctuation law and strengthen the monitoring and warning of the price trend according to the inherent mechanism of pork price change.The study on the early-warning of pork price fluctuation has been promoted to an important subject in agricultural economic research at present.According to the general situation of pork price fluctuation in recent ten years,this paper finds out the regularity and characteristics of pork price fluctuation,explores the main factors influencing pork price fluctuation and studies the pork price fluctuation early warning under the guidance of the general idea of economic early warning.On the basis of clarifying the fluctuation of pork prices,this paper firstly constructs the practical index system of pork price monthly warning by analyzing the main source of fluctuation of pork price fluctuation,and then introduces the concept of machine learning to build price warning model based on support vector machine Model,with the aim to complete the empirical study of pork price volatility in China.The result of empirical research shows that the establishment of SVM model can realize the early-warning of pork price fluctuation in China,which can provide some risk signals for the relevant market players,such as pig breeder,pork producer,consumer and government,and can help they make rational decision or take emergency mechanism to take precaution ahead of time with the inevitable practice of reference.Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to improve the early-warning of pork price fluctuation in our country,including the attention to early warning research,the improvement of early warning level,the guaranteed work of early warning and the reasonable use of early warning information.