Empirical Study On The Impact Of Carbon Tariffs On Chinese Export Of Vegetables,Fruits And Nuts

In June 2017,the United States announced its withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement,which further indicated that the developed countries,headed by the United States and Europe,had adhered to the indigenous strategy of the environment on the environmental issues.It also indicated that the long-premeditated “Carbon Tariff” is coming onto the stage.Although Carbon Tariff is called "containment",it is actually a tool to avoid responsibility for emission reduction.The US and European Union have passed the relevant plans,and will begin to impose carbon tariffs on imported products that did not meet the emission standards since 2020.The extensive use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers and the popularization of mechanization have made Chinese agriculture enter the industrial queue with high consumption and high emission.Traditionally,the developed countries such as the US,Japan and EU are the main export markets,which determines that China's agricultural trade will not escape the impact of carbon tariffs.This paper chooses the representative export of vegetables,fruits and nuts as the research object,and aims to solve the following problems: what impact will China's vegetables,fruits and nuts be affected once the carbon tariff is levied? What's the impact on trade scale,trade direction,export structure and terms of trade? What are the influencing mechanisms of carbon tariffs on agricultural products?Based on the related theory,this paper analyzes the trade characteristics of vegetables,fruits and nuts,tries to establish an analysis framework of the influence mechanism of carbon tariff on agricultural products trade,and calculates the impact of the collection of carbon tariffs on vegetables,fruits and nuts.The theoretical analysis finds that:(1)the mechanism of the impact of carbon tariffs on agricultural products is generated through the change of comparative advantage.When the "carbon" element is added to the traditional Ricardo model,the difference in production technology determines the difference in the amount of carbon input in the two countries,which will lead to the conversion of the original comparative advantage and comparative disadvantage,and even the direction of production and trade will be reversed.(2)When adding carbon elements,the difference in the abundance of carbon elements,that is,the difference in the price of the factor,will lead to the change in the comparative cost of the two countries,and the direction of production and trade may also be reversed under the framework of H-O theory.(3)The effects of carbon tariffs on the comparative advantage of Chinese agricultural products are divided into two aspects: negative and positive.In the short term,China's trade direction in foreign trade may be reversed by the increase of production cost,and the competitive advantage accumulated by traditional land and labor force may be weakened.In the long run,the comparative advantage of China's agricultural products will turn to high-tech additional products,and the export structure of agricultural products will be better.The empirical results show that:(1)China's trade conditions will be deteriorated,the trade deficit is widened,and the price of products is greatly reduced,and the price of vegetables,fruits and nuts will be the biggest decline.(2)The total output of China's agricultural products will decline slightly,and the reduction of vegetables,fruits and nuts will be higher than that of other agricultural products.(3)The export scale of global agricultural products will shrink,but China will not be affected much.When the US taxes separately,the export of China's agricultural products will continue to expand,but it will also decline in other scenarios.(4)The export market structure of vegetables,fruits and nuts is faced with adjustment.When Japan levies taxes alone,more products will enter the EU and the US;while the US,Japan and Europe will be taxed at the same time,they will face huge export pressure.(5)Japan's GDP level and terms of trade deteriorated when Japan pursued carbon tariffs while following the EU and the US.Such contradictions within developed countries create conditions for China to seek international cooperation to improve its trading environment.Based on the conclusions of the study,the following policy recommendations are proposed:(1)to optimize the market structure,fully stimulate domestic demand at the same time,the use of The Belt and Road historical opportunity to adjust the overseas market layout.(2)Export enterprises take the initiative to guide the flow of comparative advantage of agricultural products to high value-added products,and actively promote technological innovation.(3)Promote the new concept and technology of agricultural production through the participation of the government,farmers and enterprises,so as to reduce the usage of pesticides and fertilizers.(4)Adjust the export structure and set up the export structure of agricultural products based on low carbon products.(5)Establish carbon tax system in China and make full use of market mechanism to promote the development of low carbon agriculture.(6)The government actively participates in international negotiations and weakens the impact of carbon tariffs by improving international influence and enhancing international cooperation.