Study On The Optimization Of Chinese Key Industry Excess Capacity Regional Cooperation On The Foundation Of "The Belt And Road" Initiative

With the development of China's economy,the problem of irrational economic structure has gradually become the key to restrict the speed and quality of China's economic development.The outbreak of the economic crisis in 2009 further highlights the serious problem of irrational industrial structure in China,which directly affects the future economic development of China.In December 2015,the central economic work conference explicitly put forward five major economic tasks:capacity removal,stock removal,leverage removal,cost reduction and short board repair.Capacity issues are at the forefront of economic work.Regional cooperation on production capacity is based on regional production capacity advantage and regional trade status,which means to optimize the allocation of production capacity among regions through trade to achieve win-win results among regions.Therefore,the route choice of regional trade cooperation on production capacity is a problem that should be considered in China's production capacity problem areas.Has been the problem of production capacity analysis focuses on the definition of industry analysis of capacity problem,so difficult to capacity problems of regional and timeliness,etc,guiding significance to the limited of reality.Considering that in 2013 China the definition of key industries for detailed instructions,will focus on industry on the regional perspective and through the research of regional trade cooperation to optimize capacity configuration of capacity has more realistic meaning to resolve the problem.According to the capacity region distribution characteristics,influence factors of foreign trade and the regional foreign trade situation into account,27 provinces and municipalities in China five key industry capacity utilization,key industries capacity problem areas in China is mainly in 11 provinces and cities,concentrated in four areas.Further using the extended gravity model to analyze the main influencing factors of regional trade,it is found that the four regional trade cooperation influencing factors of northeast,central,western and southeast have their own characteristics.Further measurement of the trade potential of the above four regions is worthy of the current trade status of each region,namely the distribution of the areas with insufficient trade.Based on the above,this paper uses the co-integration method,the extended gravity model,and the calculation of trade potential values to obtain the regional distribution characteristics of China's key excess capacity industries,the main factors affecting foreign trade,and the status of foreign trade in the region.Based on the above analysis,the directional suggestions about how to optimize China's key excess capacity industries areas' capacity regional cooperation with "Belt and Road" is obvious:the East region should consider Mongolia,Russia and other northeast Asian regions as the main direction of capacity cooperation region;Central region should take concentric Radiant-type development options;"the Belt and Road" initiative is a perfect opportunity for the West region where is the origin place to prioritize capacity regional cooperation in countries along "the Belt and Road" initiative;the Southeast region should take the lead in regional capacity cooperation with countries along the"Maritime Silk Road" economic belt.