Research On The Trade Effect Of China's Home Country's Direct Investment In Vietnam

The Vision of China-ASEAN Strategic Partnership 2030,officially released in November 2018,mentioned that China and ASEAN will strive to deepen economic and trade ties,promote interconnection,and strive to achieve the goal of two-way trade of ?1 trillion by 2020.As an important member of ASEAN countries,Vietnam has a unique advantage in natural resources,manufacturing and processing fields and labor elements,plus the relationship with China.Vietnam has become a partner in China's development of"one belt and one road",China ASEAN Free Trade Area and Mekong Subregion Cooperation.Therefore,it is of great reference value for China and Vietnam and China to make more direct investment and improve trade relations between China and Vietnam and China.This paper classifies and summarizes the relevant literatures on foreign direct investment and trade effects at home and abroad according to the conclusions of trade substitution,trade creation and uncertainty.On the basis of the research on the most representative theories of trade substitution and trade creation,this paper expounds China's investment history,scale and bilateral trade situation in Vietnam.In addition,the trade situation between China and Vietnam is qualitatively analyzed based on the investment characteristics of China to Vietnam.Combining with the problems and characteristics of China's investment in Vietnam,this paper puts forward pertinent hypothesis about the specific trade effects between China and Vietnam,uses OLS regression to get coefficients and equations,and concludes that China's direct investment in Vietnam has a positive effect on China's import and export with Vietnam in recent decades,that is,the creation of home country trade.The paper concludes that China should fully consider the trade effect of China's direct investment in Vietnam,and make decision by combining direct investment in Vietnam with international trade,so as to promote the two-way development of China's direct investment in Vietnam and international trade.