Study On The Duration And Influencing Factors Of China's Timber Import Trade

Traditional international trade theory assumes that trade will continue once it starts,without considering the case of a trade disruption.Trade duration refers to the time from the establishment to the interruption of a trade relationship,which can analyze the instability of trade.Since the implementation of the natural forest protection project in 1998,the domestic supply of timber has been greatly reduced,so that the demand for primary timber such as logs and sawn timber is largely met by imports.In order to realize the stable development of China's timber trade,this paper studied the duration of China's timber import trade from 1993 to 2017 and analyzed its influencing factors.In this paper,k-m survival analysis is used to calculate the average duration of China's wood imports is 6 years,the median is 2 years;Selection using Logit model of discrete time,trade both sides product,trading nation GDP per capita GDP,geographic distance,traders and whether China FTA agreement,whether imports for landlocked countries,traders of forest area of national level influence factors such as the initial trade volume,trading history and wood products such as the influence factors of product level,the empirical results show that the variable duration has a significant impact on trade.In this paper,Probit model and Cloglog model are applied to test the same samples,and the results are found to be robust.Combined with the empirical results and the present situation of timber industry in China,and put forward to improve the lumber import enterprise policy support,the establishment and the maintenance,the development of free trade area with neighboring countries or economic developed countries trade links,pay attention to forest certification number,increasing domestic timber supply,control the scale of trade,in order to realize the healthy and sustainable development of wood industry.