Research On The Influence Of High Speed Railway On Modern Transportation Industry Structure

At the end of 2018,China's freight market accounted for 76.9%of the roads,railways and water transport accounted for 7.8%and 13.6%respectively.In the past ten years,the road freight market share increased by 2.2%,and the railway freight market share decreased by 33.6.%.In the passenger transport market,the proportion of railways increased from 5.1%to 18.8%in the past ten years,and the proportion of high-speed railway passenger transport to total railway passenger transport jumped from 7.6%to 60.3%.The original intention of the construction of high-speed railway passenger dedicated line is to meet the needs of the passenger transport market and solve the problem of hard-to-find one ticket at the peak period.Second,release more railway freight transport capacity and give full play to the comprehensive technical and economic advantages of railway freight transport to achieve low-cost flow of materials..The data shows that the first goal is beginning to pay off,while the latter seems to be in a "contradictory" situation.Is it because of the development of high-speed rail to undertake a large number of road passenger flow,thus releasing the freight capacity of the road and enhancing the competitiveness of road freight?In addition,the"world-wide disputes" between high-speed rail and civil aviation in many parts of China have become increasingly prominent.The rapid network formation of high-speed railway has had an impact on the transportation industry structure.The answer to this question is of great significance for optimizing the transportation industry structure to better support high-quality economic development.Based on the existing research,this paper firstly analyzes the mechanism of the high-speed railway on the modern transportation industry structure,and builds an empirical model to study the impact of China's high-speed railway on the urban transportation industry structure along the line.In terms of theoretical analysis,based on the analysis of the relationship between high-speed railway and passenger travel behavior selection,high-speed railway and other modes of transportation,high-speed railway and transportation demand structure,based on time value theory,complete transportation product theory and competition theory,Construct an interpretation framework for the impact of high-speed railways on the transportation industry structure.In terms of empirical research,considering that high-speed rail can only carry passenger transportation at present,this paper uses the passenger-sharing ratio of various modes of transportation to express the changes in the transportation industry structure,and uses the comprehensive transportation cost to indicate the degree of optimization of the transportation industry structure,and describes the data.After the analysis,the DID model is constructed to estimate the impact of high-speed railway on China's transportation industry structure.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The value of high-speed railway to save travel time is the key reason for its impact on the transportation industry structure.High-speed railways improve the travel speed and shorten the travel time,thus changing the value of travel time for passengers to choose different modes of transportation.It is the internal principle of high-speed railway affecting passenger travel behavior choice;(2)Transportation demand upgrade and transportation technology advancement is the impact of high-speed railway The fundamental driving force of the transportation industry structure,the two continue to promote the competition and cooperation between high-speed railway and other modes of transportation;(3)Through the empirical analysis of 282 county-level cities in China from 2007 to 2015,the high-speed railway opened to the railway The impact factors of passenger load sharing rate of highway,civil aviation and water transport are 0.152,-0.041,0.142 and 0.015,respectively,and their impact effects gradually increase with time;(4)Further research finds that without considering the cost of high-speed railway construction Under the high-speed railway,the comprehensive transportation cost of cities along the route can be reduced by an average of 0.46%.In addition,considering the regional heterogeneity,the promotion effect of high-speed railway opening on reducing the comprehensive transportation cost in the central and western regions is greater than that in the eastern region.